Domestic Strife and the Initiation of International Conflicts
Domestic Strife and the Initiation of International Conflicts
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国内冲突和国际冲突的引发
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Davies
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Davies
国内冲突对国际冲突可能性的影响是经验性的。一个罕见的事件logit模型与时间依赖性的校正，以评估国内冲突是否与国际冲突的发起是用来测试的有效性的牵制冲突的论文。结果表明，决策者发起国际冲突时，国家正在经历的国内冲突，虽然不是以可预测的方式。结果表明，暴力的国内冲突增加的可能性，一个分心的冲突，而非暴力冲突增加镇压的可能性。这项研究还提出了一些证据，对以前研究中的一些说法提出了质疑，并表明目标国家的国内冲突增加了受到攻击的可能性。
The effects of domestic strife on the likelihood of an international conflict are tested empirically. A rare-events logit model with corrections for temporal dependence to assess whether domestic strife is related to the initiation of international conflicts is used to test the validity of the diversionary conflict thesis. Results suggest that decision makers do initiate international conflicts when the state is undergoing domestic strife, although not in a predicted manner. The results indicate that violent domestic strife increases the likelihood of a diversionary conflict, whereas nonviolent strife increases the likelihood of repression. The research also presents evidence that calls into question some of the claims made in previous studies and demonstrates that domestic strife in a target state increases the likelihood of being attacked.