Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London
Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London
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DOI：
10.1136/jech.57.8.628
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发表时间：
2003-08-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Armstrong, BG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pattenden, S;Nikiforov, B;Armstrong, BG
研究目的：热和冷与死亡率增加有关，与季节趋势无关，但细节鲜为人知。本研究探讨了死亡率和温度之间的关联在两个欧洲首都-索菲亚和伦敦-使用四年的每日死亡人数，空气污染，和天气data.Design：广义添加剂模型被用来允许非线性建模的混杂因素，如季节和湿度，并显示形状的死亡率-温度关系-分别使用两天和两周的平均温度。模型与线性项的热和冷被用来估计滞后效应，线性效应，和归因分数。参与者：44 701所有年龄的所有原因死亡的索菲亚（1996 - 1999年）和伦敦256 464（1993 - 1996）.主要结果：在伦敦，每一度极寒（低于两周平均温度的第10百分位数），死亡率增加4.2%（95% CI 3.4至5.1），索菲亚增加1.8%（0.6至3.9）。在伦敦，两天平均值的第95百分位数以上每升高一度，死亡率就增加1.9%（1.4至2.4），在索菲亚增加3.5%（2.2至4.8）。寒冷的影响出现后，滞后约三天，并持续-特别是在伦敦-至少两个星期。主要的热效应发生得更快。有逆协会在后来的滞后热和冷在索菲亚。结论：平均温度在短时间内不足以模拟冷，可能是不够的热，如果他们忽略收获的影响。尤其是伦敦的低温似乎对普通人群造成了伤害，而且这种影响并不集中在濒临死亡的人身上。
Study objective: Heat and cold have been associated with increased mortality, independently of seasonal trends, but details are little known. This study explores associations between mortality and temperature in two European capitals - Sofia and London - using four years of daily deaths, air pollution, and weather data.Design: Generalised additive models were used to permit non-linear modelling of confounders such as season and humidity, and to show the shape of mortality-temperature relations - using both two day and two week average temperatures separately. Models with linear terms for heat and cold were used to estimate lags of effect, linear effects, and attributable fractions.Participants: 44 701 all age all cause deaths in Sofia ( 1996 - 1999) and 256 464 in London ( 1993 1996).Main results: In London, for each degree of extreme cold ( below the 10th centile of the two week mean temperature), mortality increased by 4.2% ( 95% CI 3.4 to 5.1), and in Sofia by 1.8% ( 0.6 to 3.9). For each degree rise above the 95th centile of the two day mean, mortality increased by 1.9% ( 1.4 to 2.4) in London, and 3.5% ( 2.2 to 4.8) in Sofia. Cold effects appeared after lags of around three days and lasted - particularly in London - at least two weeks. Main heat effects occurred more promptly. There were inverse associations at later lags for heat and cold in Sofia.Conclusions: Average temperatures over short periods do not adequately model cold, and may be inadequate for heat if they ignore harvesting effects. Cold temperatures in London, particularly, seem to harm the general population and the effects are not concentrated among persons close to death.