Investigating crime harm index in the low and downward crime contexts: A spatio-temporal analysis of the Japanese Crime Harm Index
Investigating crime harm index in the low and downward crime contexts: A spatio-temporal analysis of the Japanese Crime Harm Index
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调查低犯罪率和下降犯罪背景下的犯罪危害指数：日本犯罪危害指数的时空分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.cities.2022.103922
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Momoka Nakae
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tomoya Ohyama;Kazunori Hanyu;Masayuki Tani;Momoka Nakae
自路易斯·瑟斯顿（Louis Thurstone）以来，已经有近100年的尝试来比较和评估不同犯罪类型的严重程度。最近进行了进一步的研究，采用了剑桥犯罪危害指数等方法，该指数评估犯罪对社会的有害影响，并通过对较严重的犯罪进行加权，确定城市中犯罪危害真正高的地区。虽然这一指数有助于制定知情的城市政策，但其在日本等暴力犯罪（包括枪支犯罪）发生率较低、犯罪发生率一般不高的环境中的有效性仍不清楚。在这里，通过检查2010-2019年东京市中心77个司法管辖区的刑事犯罪数据来分析日本的CHI。比较了加权前的数量和加权后的伤害，以检查它们之间的相关性和时间序列的变化，以及通过不同的指标，如基尼系数和Moran的I统计量，它们之间的差异。此外，时空扫描和主成分回归被用来确定损害累积的管辖区的具体特征。结果表明，虽然危害的时空变异性高于危害的数量，但高危害辖区的集群趋势较低。此外，还讨论了我们的研究结果，特别是回归分析所揭示的社会经济因素对城市决策者的影响。
Since Louis Thurstone, there have been nearly 100 years of attempts to compare and evaluate the severities of different crime types. Further research has been recently conducted, following methods such as the Cambridge Crime Harm Index (CCHI), which evaluates the harmful impact of crime on the society and identifies the areas in a city with truly high crime harm by weighting the more serious crimes. Although this index facilitates informed urban policy, its effectiveness in settings such as that of Japan, in which the rate of violent crimes, including gun crime, is low, and where crime occurrence is generally infrequent, remains unclear. Here, the Japanese CHI was analyzed by examining the criminal offense data of 77 jurisdictions in central Tokyo in 2010–2019. The pre-weighted counts and post-weighted harm were compared to examine the correlations and time-series changes between them, as well as their differences via different indicators, such as the Gini coefficient and Moran'sIstatistic. Additionally, space-time scans and principal component regressions were employed to determine the specific characteristics of the jurisdictions where harm accumulates. The result indicated that although the temporal and spatial variability of harm was higher than that of its counts, the tendency of high-harm jurisdictions to cluster was lower. Further, the implications of our findings, particularly regarding the socioeconomic factors that were revealed by the regression analysis, to urban policymakers were also discussed.
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DOI：
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