Malaria impact of large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: maps, estimates and predictions
Malaria impact of large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: maps, estimates and predictions
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DOI：
10.1186/s12936-015-0873-2
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发表时间：
2015-09-04
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Nhamo, Luxon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kibret, Solomon;Lautze, Jonathan;Nhamo, Luxon
背景资料：虽然人们日益认识到撒哈拉以南非洲的大型水坝对疟疾的影响，但与当前和未来水坝开发有关的水库对疟疾的累积影响尚未量化。本研究的目的是估计目前和预测未来的影响，大坝疟疾在不同的生态流行病学设置在撒哈拉以南Africa.Methods：1268现有的和78个计划在撒哈拉以南Africa的大坝的位置进行了映射对疟疾稳定性指数（稳定，不稳定，没有疟疾）。使用疟疾地图集项目（MAP）和WorldPop数据库确定了距相关水库不同距离（< 1、1-2、2-5、5-9 km）人群的恶性疟原虫感染率（PfIR）。来自MAP的结果进行了验证，在11 dams.Results进行详细的流行病学研究的结果进行比较：现有的1268水坝，723位于疟疾流行区。目前，约有1 500万人居住在与这些水坝有关的水库附近（< 5公里）。每年共有110万例疟疾病例与这些疾病有关：919 000例病例是由于在不稳定传播地区有416座水坝，204 000例病例是由于在稳定传播地区有307座水坝。在计划修建的78座水坝中，有60座将建在疟疾流行地区，每年将新增56 000个病例。每年PfIR的变化在社区作为一个功能，从水库的距离是统计上显着的不稳定的传输，但不是在稳定transmission.Conclusion地区：在撒哈拉以南非洲，水坝的疟疾风险显着贡献，特别是在不稳定的传输地区。因此，需要采取更多的疟疾控制措施，以减少水坝对疟疾的影响。
Background: While there is growing recognition of the malaria impacts of large dams in sub-Saharan Africa, the cumulative malaria impact of reservoirs associated with current and future dam developments has not been quantified. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and predict the future impact of large dams on malaria in different eco-epidemiological settings across sub-Saharan Africa.Methods: The locations of 1268 existing and 78 planned large dams in sub-Saharan Africa were mapped against the malaria stability index (stable, unstable and no malaria). The Plasmodium falciparum infection rate (PfIR) was determined for populations at different distances (< 1, 1-2, 2-5, 5-9 km) from the associated reservoirs using the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) and WorldPop databases. Results derived from MAP were verified by comparison with the results of detailed epidemiological studies conducted at 11 dams.Results: Of the 1268 existing dams, 723 are located in malarious areas. Currently, about 15 million people live in close proximity (< 5 km) to the reservoirs associated with these dams. A total of 1.1 million malaria cases annually are associated with them: 919,000 cases due to the presence of 416 dams in areas of unstable transmission and 204,000 cases due to the presence of 307 dams in areas of stable transmission. Of the 78 planned dams, 60 will be located in malarious areas and these will create an additional 56,000 cases annually. The variation in annual PfIR in communities as a function of distance from reservoirs was statistically significant in areas of unstable transmission but not in areas of stable transmission.Conclusion: In sub-Saharan Africa, dams contribute significantly to malaria risk particularly in areas of unstable transmission. Additional malaria control measures are thus required to reduce the impact of dams on malaria.