A Critique of John B. Taylor’s “Expectations, Open Market Operations, and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate”
A Critique of John B. Taylor’s “Expectations, Open Market Operations, and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate”
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对约翰·泰勒 (John B. Taylor) 的《预期、公开市场操作和联邦基金利率的变化》的批评
DOI：
10.1080/01603477.2002.11490333
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Warren Mosler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Warren Mosler
摘要：本文批评了约翰·B·泰勒的建议，即美联储使用反应函数来试图预测银行对准备金的需求。我认为，美联储不需要预测对准备金的需求，因为它实现目标所需的所有信息都包含在联邦基金利率本身。如果联邦基金利率高于目标，美联储必须提供储备；当低于目标时，美联储必须抽走储备。此外，尽管泰勒有时似乎认识到，隔夜利率必然是一个由美联储设定的外生变量，而准备金是一个非可自由支配的变量，但他似乎认为，这是由于目前实施的特定会计规则。我认为，无论美联储是采用滞后的准备金核算还是采用同期的准备金核算，准备金从来都不是可自由支配的，联邦基金利率总是需要以外生的方式进行管理。
Abstract: This article critiques John B. Taylor’s proposal that the Fed use a reaction function to attempt to predict bank demand for reserves. I argue that the Fed does not need to predict the demand for reserves because all the information it requires for hitting its targets is contained in the federal funds rate itself. If the federal funds rate rises above target, the Fed must supply reserves; when it falls below target, the Fed must drain them. Further, although Taylor sometimes seems to recognize that the overnight interest rate is necessarily an exogenous variable, set by the Fed, and that reserves are a nondiscretionary variable, he appears to believe that this is due to particular accounting rules now in place. I argue that whether the Fed operates with lagged reserve accounting or contemporaneous reserve accounting, reserves are never discretionary and the federal funds rate need always be exogenously administered.