Technological Forecasting & Social Change Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry : System dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis
Technological Forecasting & Social Change Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry : System dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis
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发表时间：
2009
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通讯作者：
Kong Chyong Chi;W. Nuttall;D. Reiner
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作者：
Kong Chyong Chi;W. Nuttall;D. Reiner
文章历史记录：2007年11月25日收到，2008年6月6日收到，2008年6月8日接受。该模型已建成使用系统动力学方法。使用该模型的几个方案进行了分析。我们发现，单靠供应方政策的管理并不能大幅推迟发现、生产和消费高峰。我们还发现，主要变量的动态，即勘探，生产和消费，是敏感的初始需求条件。因此，通过努力减少需求增长，可以更有效地推迟天然气价格上涨。人们可能会认为，低税收政策将鼓励更多的天然气勘探和生产，从而刺激更高的消费率。相反，从长期来看，对生产和消费没有总体净影响。勘探成本的消耗效应对低税收政策起到了抵消作用。耗竭效应导致成本进一步上升，从而导致价格进一步上涨，从而压低消费率。勘探和生产技术的进步可以推迟勘探、生产和消费的高峰。技术改进意味着勘探和生产成本的降低，从而压低了价格动态的长期格局。© 2008爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Article history: Received 25 November 2007 Received in revised form 6 June 2008 Accepted 8 June 2008 We present a dynamic model of the indigenous natural gas industry in the UK. The model has been built using a system dynamics approach. Using the model several scenarios have been analyzed. We found that management of the supply-side policy alone cannot substantially postpone the discovery, production and consumption peak. We also found that the dynamics of the main variables, namely, exploration, production and consumption, are sensitive to initial demand conditions. Postponing the onset of gas price increases can therefore be achieved more effectively through efforts to reduce demand growth. One might expect that a low taxation policy would encourage more exploration and production of gas and thereby stimulate higher consumption rates. Instead, there was no overall net effect on production and consumption in the long term. The depletion effect on cost of exploration acts as counterbalance to low taxation policy. Depletion effect causes cost and thus price to rise further which depress consumption rate. The advances in exploration and production technology can delay the peak of exploration, production and consumption. Technological improvements mean lower cost of exploration and production which pressure down the long-term pattern of price dynamics. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.