EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS WITH AGE STRUCTURE, PROPORTIONATE MIXING, AND CROSS-IMMUNITY
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS WITH AGE STRUCTURE, PROPORTIONATE MIXING, AND CROSS-IMMUNITY
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DOI：
10.1007/bf00275810
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发表时间：
1989-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
LIU, WM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
CASTILLOCHAVEZ, C;HETHCOTE, HW;LIU, WM
一种 A 型流感病毒株的感染可针对相关病毒株的感染提供一定的保护（交叉免疫）。确定这如何影响观察到的 H1N1 和 H3N2 亚型相对较小变种的共同循环非常重要。为此，我们用两种病毒株、交叉免疫、年龄结构和传染病动态制定了离散和连续时间模型。交叉免疫模型的模拟分析表明，在死亡率一定的情况下，年龄特异性感染活动水平率无法维持持续振荡；但如果死亡率与年龄有关，即使活动水平与年龄无关，也是可能的。对于单一菌株模型来说，持续振荡似乎是不可能的，即使存在特定年龄的死亡率；因此，有人认为交叉免疫和特定年龄死亡率之间的相互作用可能是观察到的振荡的基础。
Infection by one strain of influenza type A provides some protection (cross-immunity) against infection by a related strain. It is important to determine how this influences the observed co-circulation of comparatively minor variants of the H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes. To this end, we formulate discrete and continuous time models with two viral strains, cross-immunity, age structure, and infectious disease dynamics. Simulation and analysis of models with cross-immunity indicate that sustained oscillations cannot be maintained by age-specific infection activity level rates when the mortality rate is constant; but are possible if mortalities are age-specific, even if activity levels are independent of age. Sustained oscillations do not seem possible for a single-strain model, even in the presence of age-specific mortalities; and thus it is suggested that the interplay between cross-immunity and age-specific mortalities may underlie observed oscillations.