Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping
Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.9947
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发表时间：
2014-06-30
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Feyen, Luc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alfieri, Lorenzo;Salamon, Peter;Feyen, Luc
跨国范围的洪水灾害图具有大量应用的潜力，包括气候变化研究、再保险产品、援助重大洪水危机的紧急行动等。然而，在大陆尺度上，由于难以检索大型一致的数据集，只有很少的产品可用。此外，这些是在相对粗糙的网格分辨率下产生的，这限制了它们在定性评估中的应用。在更精细的分辨率下，由于跨国层面的数据共享有限，地图通常仅限于国家边界。目前，创建欧洲洪水灾害地图意味着收集分散的区域地图，由于采用的方法和基础输入数据的质量不同，往往缺乏相互一致性。在这项工作中，我们得出了一个100米分辨率的泛欧洪水灾害图。提出的方法是基于通过基于物理的方法扩展文献级联模型。为欧洲地区建立了分布式水文和水力模型的组合。然后，利用观测到的气象数据集，推导出泛欧河网100年周期的长期流量模拟和连贯的设计洪水曲线。洪水水文被用来模拟有洪水风险的地区，输出的地图被合并成泛欧洪水灾害图。根据国家/区域灾害图对德国和英国选定地区的地图质量进行了评估。尽管存在固有的局限性和模型分辨率问题，但模拟地图与参考地图的一致性很好（命中率在59%到78%之间，关键成功率指数在43%到65%之间），这表明在欧洲范围内的许多应用具有强大的潜力。版权所有：John Wiley & Sons， Ltd。
Flood hazard maps at trans-national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans-national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data.In this work, we derive a pan-European flood hazard map at 100m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long-term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100years along the pan-European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan-European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.