Predicting coral dynamics through climate change
Predicting coral dynamics through climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-36169-7
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发表时间：
2018-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
R. Woesik;S. Köksal;Arzu Ünal;C. Cacciapaglia;C. Randall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Woesik;S. Köksal;Arzu Ünal;C. Cacciapaglia;C. Randall
热应力事件正在改变世界各地许多珊瑚礁的组成。然而，确定珊瑚的恢复速度及其对海面温度上升的长期反应是一项挑战。为了做到这一点，我们首先估计了过去日本南部和西澳大利亚州珊瑚礁受到干扰后的珊瑚恢复率。恢复率因地区而异，日本南部的珊瑚礁显示出比西澳大利亚珊瑚礁更快的恢复率（内在增长率，r= 0.38年-1）（r= 0.17年-1）。其次，我们将这些恢复率输入到一个新的非线性混合随机动力系统中，以预测2100年印度-太平洋珊瑚种群对复杂年际温度周期的响应。在三种不同的气候变化情景下，珊瑚的恢复率与全球海面温度的背景上升相叠加。该模型预测，在保守的气候变化情景下，代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5，预计这两个地方的温度异常会迅速恢复。随着海洋温度的适度增加（RCP 6.0），珊瑚种群表现出双峰响应，模型运行显示恢复或崩溃。在一切照旧的气候变化情景下（RCP 8.5），由于频繁和强烈的温度异常，珊瑚不太可能恢复。
Thermal-stress events are changing the composition of many coral reefs worldwide. Yet, determining the rates of coral recovery and their long-term responses to increasing sea-surface temperatures is challenging. To do so, we first estimated coral recovery rates following past disturbances on reefs in southern Japan and Western Australia. Recovery rates varied between regions, with the reefs in southern Japan showing more rapid recovery rates (intrinsic rate of increase,r= 0.38 year−1) than reefs in Western Australia (r= 0.17 year−1). Second, we input these recovery rates into a novel, nonlinear hybrid-stochastic-dynamical system to predict the responses of Indo-Pacific coral populations to complex inter-annual temperature cycles into the year 2100. The coral recovery rates were overlaid on background increases in global sea-surface temperatures, under three different climate-change scenarios. The models predicted rapid recovery at both localities with the infrequent and low-magnitude temperature anomalies expected under a conservative climate-change scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. With moderate increases in ocean temperatures (RCP 6.0) the coral populations showed a bimodal response, with model runs showing either recovery or collapse. Under a business-as-usual climate-change scenario (RCP 8.5), with frequent and intense temperature anomalies, coral recovery was unlikely.