Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in the Distribution of Chikungunya and Zika Virus Case Incidences during their 2014 to 2016 Epidemics in Barranquilla, Colombia
Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in the Distribution of Chikungunya and Zika Virus Case Incidences during their 2014 to 2016 Epidemics in Barranquilla, Colombia
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph16101759
复制
发表时间：
2019-05-02
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Cano, Jorge
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McHale, Thomas C.;Romero-Vivas, Claudia M.;Cano, Jorge
基孔肯雅病毒(CHIKV)和寨卡病毒(ZIKV)最近已成为全球重要的传染病。这项研究旨在探索2014年和2016年哥伦比亚主要国际海港城市巴兰基利亚发生CHIKV和ZIKV疫情的时空异质性以及聚集性的可能性。发病数据用基于多个解释变量的多个贝叶斯泊松模型进行拟合，这些解释变量是从其他研究中确定的潜在风险因素和随机影响的选项。使用最佳拟合模型分析其病例发病风险，并确定其流行期间的任何风险因素。北部地区的居民区是CHIKV和ZIKV疫情的高发区。在疫情暴发期间，西南部和一些东部/东南部地区也出现了其他热点，包括部分环城主干道及其进出口货物仓库和海港区域，或紧邻环城主干道。多变量条件自回归模型强烈地将较高的社会经济阶层和居住在主干道附近的社区确定为ZIKV病例发生率的危险因素。这些发现将有助于适当集中病媒控制工作，但也挑战了这样一种信念，即这些感染是由社会脆弱性驱动的，值得在巴兰基利亚和整个世界热带和亚热带地区进行进一步研究。
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as globally important infections. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout the major international seaport city of Barranquilla, Colombia in 2014 and 2016 and the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on multiple explanatory variables as potential risk factors identified from other studies and options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse their case incidence risks and identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region were hotspots for both CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks. Additional hotspots occurred in the southwestern and some eastern/southeastern areas during their outbreaks containing part of, or immediately adjacent to, the major circular city road with its import/export cargo warehouses and harbour area. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata and living in a neighbourhood near a major road as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These findings will help to appropriately focus vector control efforts but also challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merit further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the world's tropical and subtropical regions.