Improved Coastal Precipitation Forecasts with Direct Assimilation ofGOES-11/12Imager Radiances
Improved Coastal Precipitation Forecasts with Direct Assimilation ofGOES-11/12Imager Radiances
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-10-05040.1
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发表时间：
2011-12
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
X. Zou;Zhengkun Qin;F. Weng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
X. Zou;Zhengkun Qin;F. Weng
地球同步业务环境卫星（GOES）成像仪提供的观测资料具有很高的空间和时间分辨率，可用于有效地监测和临近预报恶劣天气事件。在这项研究中，改进的定量降水预报（QPFs）的三个沿海风暴在墨西哥湾北方和东海岸的同化GOES-11和GOES-12成像仪辐射到天气研究和预报（WRF）模式。美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）的网格点统计插值（GSI）分析系统和社区辐射传输模式（CRTM）被用来摄取GOES IR晴空数据。同化GOES成像仪辐射在6-12小时的时间窗口之前，对流开始和/或发展可以显着提高附近的墨西哥湾北方海岸的降水预报。6个月后，3 h累积降水威胁得分增加了20%左右。
AbstractThe Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager provides observations that are of high spatial and temporal resolution and can be applied for effectively monitoring and nowcasting severe weather events. In this study, improved quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for three coastal storms over the northern Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast is demonstrated by assimilating GOES-11 and GOES-12 imager radiances into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system and the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) are utilized to ingest GOES IR clear-sky data. Assimilation of GOES imager radiances during a 6–12-h time window prior to convective initiation and/or development could significantly improve the precipitation forecasts near the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The 3-h accumulative precipitation threat scores are increased by about 20% after 6 ...