Let the Researcher Beware: The Use of the Richardson Equations to Estimate the Parameters of a Dyadic Arms Acquisition Process
Let the Researcher Beware: The Use of the Richardson Equations to Estimate the Parameters of a Dyadic Arms Acquisition Process
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让研究人员注意：使用理查森方程来估计二元武器采购过程的参数
DOI：
10.2307/2110840
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发表时间：
1982
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Richard Stoll
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Richard Stoll
大多数试图理清民族国家武器采购因素的尝试都或多或少地依赖于刘易斯·理查森的工作。然而，这些调查的结果很少是持久的；一项研究发现，一个特定的民族国家可能会卷入军备竞赛，而另一项研究则得出结论，这对国家是由各自的内部因素驱动的。本文提出的问题是：当使用理查森方程时，出现二元武器获取过程的真正模型的可能性有多大？这个问题是通过构建两个代表两个国家军事能力的数据集来研究的——一个是当军备竞赛存在时，另一个是当每个国家的能力获得是由内部因素驱动时。然后用这些数据来估计理查森方程。结论是，在许多情况下，对理查德森方程的估计可能无法揭示该过程的真实参数，并且很可能导致对同一双进武器获取过程的不同结论。
Most attempts to untangle the factors accounting for arms acquisition by nation states rely implicitly or explicitly on the work of Lewis Richardson. However, very few findings from these investigations are durable; one study finds a particular nation state dyad to be involved in an arms race, while the next concludes that this same pair of nations is driven by factors internal to each. The question asked in this paper is: how likely is the true model of a dyadic arms acquisition process to emerge when the Richardson equations are used? This question is investigated by constructing two data sets representing the military capability of a pair of nations-one when an arms race is present, and the other when each nation's acquisition of capability is driven by internal factors. These data are then used to estimate the Richardson equations. The conclusion is that in many situations, estimation of the Richardson equations may not uncover the true parameters of the process and may well lead to different conclusions about the same dyadic arms acquisition process.