Residual life prediction of repairable systems subject to imperfect preventive maintenance using extended proportional hazards model
Residual life prediction of repairable systems subject to imperfect preventive maintenance using extended proportional hazards model
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DOI：
10.1177/0954408911405293
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发表时间：
2012-02
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ming-Yi You;G. Meng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ming-Yi You;G. Meng
比例危险模型（PHM）是状态维修（CBM）中设备剩余寿命（RL）预测和预防性维修（PM）计划的代表性工具。然而，PHM在CBM程序中的使用目前仅限于不可修复的系统或可修复的系统接收完美的PM行为。受经典的基于寿命分布的不完美PM模型和PHM的启发，我们最近的研究提出了一个扩展的PHM（EPHM）的PM调度系统的不完美PM行为和可变的操作条件。本研究进一步提出了使用EPHM（随时间变化的协变量）RL预测不完善PM行为的可修复系统。一个典型退化模型的数值实验说明了EPHM的使用。实验结果提供的证据表明，EPHM提供了合理的准确和可靠的RL预测后，不完善的PM行为，而不是高估的经典PHM不考虑不完善的PM行为的影响。
Proportional hazards model (PHM) is a representative tool for equipment residual life (RL) prediction and preventive maintenance (PM) scheduling in a condition-based maintenance (CBM) program. However, the use of PHM in a CBM program is currently limited to irreparable systems or repairable systems receiving perfect PM acts. Motivated by the classical lifetime distribution-based imperfect PM model and the PHM, our recent study proposes an extended PHM (EPHM) for PM scheduling of systems subject to imperfect PM acts and variable operational conditions. This study further proposes the use of EPHM (with time-varying covariates) for RL prediction of repairable systems subject to imperfect PM acts. A numerical experiment based on a typical degradation model illustrates the use of the EPHM. The experimental results provide evidence that the EPHM provides reasonably accurate and reliable RL prediction after imperfect PM acts, as opposed to the overestimation by the classical PHM which does not take the effect of imperfect PM acts into account.