Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017
Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.geog.2018.11.002
复制
发表时间：
2018-11
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
L. Zotov;Xueqing Xu;Yonghong Zhou;Arkadiy Skorobogatov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Zotov;Xueqing Xu;Yonghong Zhou;Arkadiy Skorobogatov
作为地球定向参数组合预报试点项目的参与者（EOPC PPP）、州立大学莫斯科斯滕贝格天文研究所（SAI）和上海天文台（SHAO）自2012年至2017年已累计预测了1800天的地球定向参数（EOP），预测时间长达未来90天，并通过四种技术进行：SAI的自回归（AR）、最小二乘配置（LSC）和神经网络（NNET）预测以及SHAO的最小二乘加自回归（LS + AR）预测。最后将预测结果与SAI-SHAO COMB EOP预测相结合。在这项工作中，我们提出了五年的实时统计的组合预测，并将其与IERS公告A的预测由USNO的不确定性。
As the participants of Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project (EOPC PPP), Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University (SAI) and Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO) have accumulated ∼1800 days of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions since 2012 till 2017, which were up to 90 days into the future, and made by four techniques: auto-regression (AR), least squares collocation (LSC), and neural network (NNET) forecasts from SAI, and least-squares plus auto-regression (LS + AR) forecast from SHAO. The predictions were finally combined into SAI-SHAO COMB EOP prediction. In this work we present five-year real-time statistics of the combined prediction and compare it with the uncertainties of IERS bulletin A predictions made by USNO.