On the Consequences of Demographic Change for International Capital Flows, Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare
On the Consequences of Demographic Change for International Capital Flows, Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare
复制标题
论人口变化对国际资本流动、资本回报率以及财富和福利分配的影响
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Ludwig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dirk Krueger;A. Ludwig
在所有主要工业化国家，随着时间的推移，人口都在老龄化，处于工作年龄的人口比例在减少。因此，相对于资本而言，劳动力预计将是稀缺的，随之而来的是资本实际回报率的下降和实际工资的增加。本文采用具有队列内异质性的大规模OLG模型，探讨由人口结构变化引起的要素价格变化的分布后果。由于这些人口变化在工业化经济体中以不同的速度发生，我们开发了一个多地区（美国、欧盟、经合组织其他成员国和世界其他地区）的开放经济模式，允许国际资本流动。这使我们能够评估，由于世界其他地区的人口老龄化速度不同，在多大程度上减轻或加剧了美国和欧洲要素价格变化的分配后果
In all major industrialized countries the population is aging over time, reducing the fraction of the population in working age. Consequently labor is expected to be scarce, relative to capital, with an ensuing decline in real returns on capital and increases in real wages. This paper employs a large scale OLG model with intra-cohort heterogeneity to ask what are the distributional consequences of these changes in factor prices induced by changes in the demographic structure. Since these demographic changes occur at different speed in industrialized economies we develop a multi-region (the US, the European Union, the rest of the OECD and the rest of the world) openeconomy model that allows for international capital flows. This allows us to evaluate to what extent the distributional consequences of changing factor prices for the US and Europe are mitigated or accentuated by the fact that the population is aging at different rates elsewhere in the world