Demographic analysis of dormancy and survival in the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae
Demographic analysis of dormancy and survival in the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae
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陆生兰花杓兰休眠和存活的人口统计分析
DOI：
10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00885.x
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
K. Gregg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Kéry;K. Gregg
1我们使用捕获-再捕获模型来估计休眠分株的比例，存活率和状态转换率，并确定影响这些速率的因素，对于陆生兰花Cypripedium reginae。我们研究了两个种群在西弗吉尼亚州，美国，11年，放牧和人口之间的关系进行了调查。阿部润的人口是小的，与中度食草动物的鹿和相对稳定的人口规模。在我们的研究开始之前的春天，当人口被围起来的时候，大草案的人口是中等规模的，有大量的鹿放牧，开花植物的数量急剧下降。2我们观察到休眠发作持续1至4年。在阿部运行和大草案，32.5%和7.4%的分株，分别是休眠至少一次在研究期间，平均为1.6和1.3年，分别。我们估计，在休眠状态的分株的年度分数为12.3%（95%CI 9.5-15.8%）在阿部运行和1.8%（95%CI 1.2-2.6%）在大草案。休眠，营养和开花生命状态之间的转换率在两个种群中的年份之间没有变化。大多数存活的分株从一年到下一年保持相同的状态。在Abe Run时，生存率恒定（0.96，95% CI 0.93-0.97），但在Big Draft时，不同年份的生存率不同（0.89-0.99，平均值0.95）。3在大吃水，我们既没有发现停止放牧后的生存时间趋势，也没有发现生存与春季霜冻天数或当前或过去12个月累积降水量之间的关系。然而，对3个月降水量的分析显示，前一年春季（3月至5月）的存活率与降水量之间存在正相关关系。4气候与兰花种群动态之间的关系可能必须以精细的时间分辨率进行研究，并考虑到可能的时间滞后。捕获-再捕获模型为休眠植物的人口统计分析提供了一个全面而灵活的框架。
1 We use capture‐recapture models to estimate the fraction of dormant ramets, survival and state transition rates, and to identify factors affecting these rates, for the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae. We studied two populations in West Virginia, USA, for 11 years and investigated relationships between grazing and demography. Abe Run's population was small, with moderate herbivory by deer and relatively constant population size. The population at Big Draft was of medium size, with heavy deer grazing, and a sharply declining number of flowering plants up to the spring before our study started, when the population was fenced. 2 We observed dormant episodes lasting from 1 to 4 years. At Abe Run and Big Draft, 32.5% and 7.4% of ramets, respectively, were dormant at least once during the study period for an average of 1.6 and 1.3 years, respectively. We estimated the annual fraction of ramets in the dormant state at 12.3% (95% CI 9.5–15.8%) at Abe Run and at 1.8% (95% CI 1.2–2.6%) at Big Draft. Transition rates between the dormant, vegetative and flowering life‐states did not vary between years in either population. Most surviving ramets remained in the same state from one year to the next. Survival rates were constant at Abe Run (0.96, 95% CI 0.93–0.97), but varied between years at Big Draft (0.89–0.99, mean 0.95). 3 At Big Draft, we found neither a temporal trend in survival after cessation of grazing, nor relationships between survival and the number of spring frost days or cumulative precipitation during the current or the previous 12 months. However, analysis of precipitation on a 3‐month basis revealed a positive relationship between survival and precipitation during the spring (March–May) of the previous year. 4 Relationship between climate and the population dynamics of orchids may have to be studied with a fine temporal resolution, and considering possible time lags. Capture‐recapture modelling provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for demographic analysis of plants with dormancy.