Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates
Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates
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DOI：
10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1
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发表时间：
2021-12
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Joshua H. P. Studholme;A. Fedorov;S. Gulev;K. Emanuel;K. Hodges
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Joshua H. P. Studholme;A. Fedorov;S. Gulev;K. Emanuel;K. Hodges
热带气旋(TC，也称为飓风和台风)通常在低纬度形成，可以进入热带海洋的温暖水域，但距离赤道足够远，足以使行星自转导致聚集的对流旋转成连贯的涡旋。然而，目前对热带气旋纬度的预测框架对气候变化做出了相互矛盾的预测。对始新世和上新世等过去温暖气候的模拟表明，与工业化前的条件相比，TCS可以在更高的纬度形成和加强。对21世纪的观测和模型预测表明，由于人为的温室气体排放，TC可能再次向极地迁移，这对地球上人口最多的地区构成了严重的风险。以前的研究在很大程度上忽略了单个风暴在时间和空间尺度上发生的复杂过程，因为这些过程在数值模式中很难分辨。在这里，我们在Hadley环流、急流和热带辐合带对气候变暖的响应的背景下回顾了这一中尺度物理。我们的结论是，21世纪的热带气旋将极有可能占据比过去300万 年更宽的纬度范围，因为低纬度的起源将得到越来越多的中纬度热带气旋的支持，尽管对未来迁移的准确估计仍然超出了目前的方法。
Tropical cyclones (TCs, also known as hurricanes and typhoons) generally form at low latitudes with access to the warm waters of the tropical oceans, but far enough off the equator to allow planetary rotation to cause aggregating convection to spin up into coherent vortices. Yet, current prognostic frameworks for TC latitudes make contradictory predictions for climate change. Simulations of past warm climates, such as the Eocene and Pliocene, show that TCs can form and intensify at higher latitudes than of those during pre-industrial conditions. Observations and model projections for the twenty-first century indicate that TCs may again migrate poleward in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which poses profound risks to the planet’s most populous regions. Previous studies largely neglected the complex processes that occur at temporal and spatial scales of individual storms as these are poorly resolved in numerical models. Here we review this mesoscale physics in the context of responses to climate warming of the Hadley circulation, jet streams and Intertropical Convergence Zone. We conclude that twenty-first century TCs will most probably occupy a broader range of latitudes than those of the past 3 million years as low-latitude genesis will be supplemented with increasing mid-latitude TC favourability, although precise estimates for future migration remain beyond current methodologies.