Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts?
Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts?
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DOI：
10.3386/w29591
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Bloom;Takafumi Kawakubo;C. Meng;P. Mizen;Rebecca Riley;Tatsuro Senga;J. Van Reenen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Bloom;Takafumi Kawakubo;C. Meng;P. Mizen;Rebecca Riley;Tatsuro Senga;J. Van Reenen
我们将一项涵盖8000家公司的英国管理调查与制造业和服务业生产率的面板数据联系起来。管理实践有很大的差异，这与生产力、盈利能力和规模高度相关。独特的是，该调查收集了企业对自身销售的微观预测以及对GDP的宏观预测。我们发现，管理得更好的公司即使在控制了规模、年龄、行业和许多其他因素之后，也能做出更准确的微观和宏观预测。我们还表明，管理得更好的公司似乎意识到他们的预测更准确，围绕中心值的主观不确定性更低。这些程式化的事实表明，管理较好的公司表现优异的一个原因是，他们有意识地做出更准确的预测，使他们能够做出更好的运营和战略选择。
We link a new UK management survey covering 8,000 firms to panel data on productivity in manufacturing and services. There is a large variation in management practices, which are highly correlated with productivity, profitability and size. Uniquely, the survey collects firms’ micro forecasts of their own sales and also macro forecasts of GDP. We find that better managed firms make more accurate micro and macro forecasts, even after controlling for their size, age, industry and many other factors. We also show better managed firms appear aware that their forecasts are more accurate, with lower subjective uncertainty around central values. These stylized facts suggest that one reason for the superior performance of better managed firms is that they knowingly make more accurate forecasts, enabling them to make superior operational and strategic choices.