Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects
Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.10.003
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发表时间：
2013-05
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Yao-Chen Kuo;Shih-Tong Lu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yao-Chen Kuo;Shih-Tong Lu
在大都市地区进行建设项目是一个有风险的，竞争激烈的，动态的命题，需要一个可靠的风险评估模型进行充分的规划。本研究采用模糊多准则决策（FMCDM）的方法来系统地评估风险的大都市建设项目。一致性模糊偏好关系（CFPR）被用来衡量和研究的相对影响，包括在四个风险维度的20个已识别的风险因素对项目绩效。采用模糊多属性直接评级法（FMADR）分析多个风险因素的发生概率。通过对各风险因素的相对影响和发生概率的综合分析，评价了各风险因素对整个项目的风险程度。FMCDM的实施使得所提出的风险评估方法比传统的统计方法更可靠和实用。该方法可以有效地评估项目的整体风险，并有助于有效地识别城市建设项目的重大风险。
The undertaking of construction projects in metropolitan areas is a risky, competitive, and dynamic proposition requiring a reliable risk assessment model for adequate planning. This study employs a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) approach to systematically assess risk for a metropolitan construction project. Consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) are used to measure and investigate the relative impact on project performance of twenty identified risk factors included in four risk dimensions. The fuzzy multiple attributes direct rating (FMADR) approach is employed to analyze the occurrence probability of multiple risk factors. Furthermore, the level of risk for the overall project caused by individual risk factor is evaluated with the synthesized analysis of the relative impacts and probability of occurrence. The implementation of FMCDM makes the proposed risk assessment approach more reliable and practical than the traditional statistical approach. The proposed approach can be employed to effectively evaluate the overall project risk, and can be benefited to efficiently identify significant risks of a metropolitan construction project.