Long-distance dispersal and human population density allow the prediction of invasive patterns in the horse chestnut leafminer Cameraria ohridella
Long-distance dispersal and human population density allow the prediction of invasive patterns in the horse chestnut leafminer Cameraria ohridella
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DOI：
10.1111/j.0021-8790.2004.00820.x
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发表时间：
2004-05-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Heitland, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gilbert, M;Grégoire, JC;Heitland, W
1. 1985年在马其顿首次发现后，在过去的19年里，Cameraria ohridella已经入侵了中欧和西欧的大部分地区。该物种对七叶树造成美学损害，通常首先在人口稠密的地区观察到，然后才在农村定居。这种模式与长距离移动和局部扩散相结合的分层扩散过程是一致的。2.使用大规模的空间数据造成的损害Cameraria ohridella在德国，三个随机空间模型的传播进行了比较：扩散模型，一个尖峰扩散模型和分层扩散模型，假设一个两尺度的扩散过程。此外，在最后一个模型中，通过将远距离侵扰概率与人口密度联系起来，测试了人口与蛾类入侵之间的关联。最后，这些空间模型构建的数据从德国进行了测试，在欧洲范围内，并与历史记录的第一次发生。允许长距离扩散的厚尾扩散核模型（尖峰和分层扩散模型）比扩散模型提供更好的预测。在这些模型中，结合人口密度效应的分层扩散模型在预测（最小平方误差和）和定性（相似的分形维数）方面提供了对德国Cameraria ohridella传播的最佳描述.讨论了近距离扩散和远距离扩散在黑脉金龟子入侵生态学中的作用，以及模型的尺度依赖性和局限性。
1. After its initial discovery in Macedonia in 1985, during the last 19 years the leafminer moth Cameraria ohridella has invaded most of Central and Western Europe. The species, which causes aesthetic damage to horse chestnuts, is generally observed first in highly populated locations before colonizing the countryside. This pattern is consistent with a stratified dispersal process combining long-distance movements and local diffusion.2. Using large-scale spatial data on damage caused by Cameraria ohridella in Germany, three stochastic spatial models of spread are compared: a diffusion model, a leptokurtic dispersal model and a stratified dispersal model that assumes a two-scale dispersal process. In addition, the association between human population and moth invasion is tested in this last model by linking long-distance infestation probability to human population density. Finally, these spatial models constructed with data from Germany are tested at the European scale and compared to historical records of first occurrence.3. The fat-tailed dispersal kernel models (leptokurtic and stratified dispersal models) allowing for long-distance dispersal provide better predictions than the diffusion model. Among these models, the stratified dispersal model incorporating the effect of human population density provides the best description of the spread of Cameraria ohridella in Germany in predictive (lowest sum of squared errors) and qualitative (similar fractal dimension) terms.4. The roles of short-distance and long-distance dispersal in Cameraria ohridella invasion ecology in relation to human population are discussed, together with the models' scale-dependence and limitations.