Trajectories of drinking from 18 to 26 years: identification and prediction
Trajectories of drinking from 18 to 26 years: identification and prediction
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1360-0443.2002.00220.x
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发表时间：
2002-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Pratap, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Casswell, S;Pledger, M;Pratap, S
目的确定18至26岁饮酒的发展轨迹，并确定受政策影响的变量，预测这些轨迹。设计纵向数据采用潜在类别混合模型进行分析。设置参与者在一个中心位置接受采访。参与者省级城市出生队列，跨国研究表明，研究结果可推广到其他类似的市场经济。测量过去一年的饮酒频率和每次饮酒的典型数量是从五个地点计算的-具体问题。用于预测轨迹组成员的措施是获得酒精，饮酒许可的场所，响应酒精广告，教育成就，父母的消费，发病年龄的定期饮酒和living arrangements.Results三个轨迹的消费量显示减少消费后，21岁，但一个轨迹显示显着增加。饮酒频率的三个轨迹随着时间的推移而增加或保持稳定。18岁时进入有执照的场所对轨迹组的成员有最显著的影响，教育成就对较重数量轨迹组的成员有显著的影响。父母饮酒量，获得酒精在15岁，喜欢酒精广告，生活安排和年龄的发病规律drinking也影响轨迹membership.Conclusions数量和频率的饮酒在青春期和成年早期有不同的轨迹。酗酒群体的成员资格受到环境影响的影响，这些影响受到政策变化的影响，特别是较早进入持牌场所的影响。在一个小组中，高数量的消费在26岁时没有减少。
Objective To identify developmental trajectories of drinking between the ages of 18 and 26 years and to identify variables, amenable to policy influence, which predict these trajectories.Design Longitudinal data were analysed using latent class mixture modelling.Setting Participants were interviewed in a central location.Participants Provincial city birth cohort, cross-national studies suggest findings are generalizable to other similar market economics.Measurements The frequency of drinking over the past year and the typical quantity consumed per drinking occasion were computed from five location-specific questions. Measures used to predict membership of trajectory groups were case of access to alcohol, drinking on licensed premises, response to alcohol advertising, educational achievement, parental consumption, age of onset of regular drinking and living arrangements.Results Three trajectories of quantities consumed showed reduced consumption after age 21 but one trajectory showed marked increases. Three trajectories of frequency of drinking increased or remained stable over time. Access to licensed premises at age 18 had the most significant impact on membership of the trajectory groups and educational achievement had a significant impact on membership of the heavier quantity trajectory groups. Parental alcohol consumption, access to alcohol at 15 years, liking for alcohol advertising, living arrangement and age of onset of regular drinking also influenced trajectory membership.Conclusions Quantity and frequency of drinking in adolescence and early adulthood had different trajectories. Membership of heavier drinking groups was affected by environmental influences which are subject to policy change, particularly that of earlier access to licensed premises. In a small group high-quantity consumption did not decrease at age 26.