Deterrence, Firearm Arrests, and Subsequent Shootings: A Micro-Level Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Deterrence, Firearm Arrests, and Subsequent Shootings: A Micro-Level Spatio-Temporal Analysis
复制标题
威慑、枪支逮捕和后续枪击事件：微观时空分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jennifer D. Wood
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brian R. Wyant;Ralph B. Taylor;J. Ratcliffe;Jennifer D. Wood
警察持枪逮捕是否会减少附近地点以及逮捕后几天内的枪击事件？为了更好地描述连接这两种事件类型的时空动态，这个问题比以前的工作更详细地进行了研究。 2004 年至 2007 年费城所有枪支逮捕 (n = 5,687 起) 和枪击事件 (n = 5,870) 均使用改进的近距离配对方法进行了分析。持枪逮捕后，枪击事件大幅下降，几个街区外的枪击事件下降了 28% 至 47%。然而，这些显着下降只持续了几天。总体而言，结果表明，警察的枪支压制效果可能会持续到距离枪支逮捕两个街区的范围，但这种效果也是短暂的。讨论了威慑的潜在影响。
Do police firearm arrests reduce later shootings in nearby locations and in the days immediately following the arrest? This question is examined at a more detailed level than in previous work in order to better describe the spatio-temporal dynamics linking these two event types. All firearm arrests (n = 5,687) and shootings (n = 5,870) in Philadelphia from 2004 to 2007 were analyzed using a modified close-pair method. Following a firearm arrest shootings declined significantly, 28–47% up to a couple of blocks away. These significant declines, however, lasted for just a few days. Overall, results suggest police firearm suppression effects occur, may extend up to two blocks away from a firearm arrest, but also are short-lived. Potential implications for deterrence are discussed.