How Trajectories of Disadvantage Help Explain School Attainment
How Trajectories of Disadvantage Help Explain School Attainment
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DOI：
10.1177/2158244018825171
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发表时间：
2019-01-28
期刊：
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Siddiqui, Nadia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gorard, Stephen;Siddiqui, Nadia
这篇文章说明了在英国，评估学校劣势的不同方法与随后16岁的资格考试结果之间的联系。我们之前的工作比较了代表当前或最近劣势快照的变量(如是否有资格享受免费学校餐[FSM])和长期摘要变量，发现后者既改善了学校之间社会隔离的衡量标准，也改善了对成绩原始分数差异的解释。这项新工作采用了更详细的纵向方法，用29个不同的分析步骤对国家学生数据库中55万名学生从整个学校到16岁的一个年龄段的过程进行了建模，使用了“效应”大小、相关性和回归模型。这些步骤代表了不同的阶段，比如每个学生出生时的情况，10岁时和谁一起上学，14岁时住在哪里。该模型还包括代表任何一年学生数据缺失位置的变量。以关键阶段4分作为结果衡量标准，这些阶段可以预测R=0.90的结果。这比使用快照或劣势摘要的模型要高得多。关键的预测因素是5岁时的贫困和特殊教育需求，以及整个学校，再加上6岁、10岁和13岁时的既往成就。由于预测因素是按照生活顺序输入模型的，因此几乎没有证据表明不同语言和少数民族群体的进步存在差异，也没有证据表明地区差异或某种类型的学校效应。文章最后总结了这些结果对评估学校环境和政策制定者的劣势的影响。考虑到每年学校作文的负面影响都很小，但显然是一致的，一个明显的含义是，学校的招生应该尽可能地在社会和学业上混合。
This article illustrates the links between different ways of assessing disadvantage at school and subsequent qualification outcomes at age 16 in England. Our previous work has compared variables that represent current or recent snapshots of disadvantage (such as eligibility for free school meals [FSM]) with long-term summary variables and found the latter to improve measures of both social segregation between schools and explanations of raw-score differences in attainment. This new work takes an even more detailed longitudinal approach, modeling the course of one age cohort of 550,000 pupils from the National Pupil Database through their entire schooling to the age of 16 in 29 distinct analytical steps, using "effect" sizes, correlations, and a regression model. The steps represent stages such as what is known about each pupil when they were born, who they attended school with at age 10, and where they lived at age 14. The model also includes variables representing where data are missing for any pupil in any year. Using capped Key Stage 4 points as an outcome measure, these stages can predict the outcome with R = .90. This is considerably higher than for models using either snapshots or summaries of disadvantage. Key predictors are poverty and special educational needs at age 5, and throughout schooling, coupled with prior attainment at ages 6, 10, and 13. With predictors fed into the model in life order, there is little evidence of differential progress for different language and ethnic minority groups and no evidence of regional differences or a type of school effect. The article concludes with the implications of these results for assessing disadvantage when considering school contexts and for policy makers. Given the small but apparently consistent negative school composition "effects" in every year, one clear implication is that school intakes should be as mixed as possible both socially and academically.