When is the Best Time to Give Birth?
When is the Best Time to Give Birth?
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什么时候是最佳分娩时间？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Winter‐Ebmer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Christoph Pamminger;A. Weber;R. Winter‐Ebmer
运用贝叶斯马尔可夫链聚类分析方法，对奥地利女性第一胎出生后的职业发展路径进行了研究。这种以数据为导向的方法可以通过在育儿假、非就业和不同就业形式之间的过渡来描述母亲长达19年的长期职业道路。因此，我们将女性分为五个不同的群体，她们在生育方面的长期职业成本非常不同。我们在有限混合模型中用多项式规范来模型化群组成员。这种方法让人们对家庭长期鸿沟的决定因素有了更深入的了解。晚育可能会导致非常不同的结果：一方面，它增加了退出劳动力大军的几率，另一方面，它增加了进入高薪职业轨道的几率。
Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track.