Heading for the Hills? Effects of Community Flood Management on Local Adaptation to Flood Risks: Management and Adaptation to Flood Risks
Heading for the Hills? Effects of Community Flood Management on Local Adaptation to Flood Risks: Management and Adaptation to Flood Risks
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前往山上？
DOI：
10.1002/soej.12340
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Liu, Xian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Noonan, Douglas S.;Liu, Xian
社区评级系统（CRS）计划由美国联邦应急管理局（FEMA）于1990年实施，作为一项可选计划，鼓励社区自愿参与洪水缓解计划。本文使用1980年至2010年的全国人口普查区域数据来估计CRS参与和洪水风险是否会影响社区的人口变化模式。我们采用工具变量策略来解决CRS参与的潜在内隐性，基于社区规模的人口统计因素，预测一个道的主机社区何时加入CRS。研究结果发现，CRS计划和洪水风险对人口变化的显着影响。总的来说，研究结果表明，在有更多新来者和CRS稳定人口计划的地区，社区规模的洪水管理倾向更大，尽管在洪水易发地区并非如此。我们观察到CRS既没有将人口转移到风险较低的地区，也没有吸引更多的人到洪水易发地区。
The Community Rating System (CRS) program was implemented by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 1990 as an optional program to encourage communities to voluntarily engage in flood mitigation initiatives. This article uses national census tract‐level data from 1980 to 2010 to estimate whether CRS participation and flood risk affect a community's local patterns of population change. We employ an instrumental‐variables strategy to address the potential endogeneity of CRS participation, based on community‐scale demographic factors that predict when a tract's host community joins the CRS. The results find significant effects of the CRS program and flood risk on population change. Taken together, the findings point to greater propensity for community‐scale flood management in areas with more newcomers and programs such as CRS stabilizing population, though not especially in flood‐prone areas. We observe the CRS neither displacing population toward lower‐risk areas nor attracting more people to flood‐prone areas.