Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: A water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach
Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: A water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.08.054
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发表时间：
2014-01-15
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
He, Bin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Yong;Wang, Yilin;He, Bin
中国正面临湖泊富营养化加剧的挑战，其中滇池最为严重。滇池富营养化治理始于20世纪80年代中期。然而，决策者们对过去的努力缺乏明显的水质反应感到困惑，因为投入巨大。因此，决策者迫切需要一种科学合理的方法来定量评估湖泊水质对拟议管理措施和工程的响应。我们采用基于水质模型的情景分析方法，定量评估了滇池对在建引水工程的富营养化响应。主要分析框架建立在三维水动力、营养物命运和运输以及藻类动力学模型的基础上，该模型之前已使用历史数据进行了校准和验证。我们设计了 16 个情景来分析三个驱动力对水质的影响，包括流域养分负荷、分流流入水的变化和湖泊水位。然后进行由正交试验分析和线性回归组成的两步统计分析，以区分各种驱动力对湖泊水质的贡献。分析结果表明：(a)不同的引水工程管理方式会导致滇池水质响应不同，但差异并不显着； (b) 各种引水工程运行方式的叶绿素a年平均浓度和峰值浓度最大降低分别为11%和5%； (c) 流域负荷减少66%和引水相结合，可以将湖泊缺氧体积百分比从现有的6.82%消除到3.00%； (d) 引水可以减少藻华的发生，如果按季节分配引水，使雨季流量更多，可以增强减少藻类的效果。 (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
China is confronting the challenge of accelerated lake eutrophication, where Lake Dianchi is considered as the most serious one. Eutrophication control for Lake Dianchi began in the mid-1980s. However, decision makers have been puzzled by the lack of visible water quality response to past efforts given the tremendous investment. Therefore, decision makers desperately need a scientifically sound way to quantitatively evaluate the response of lake water quality to proposed management measures and engineering works. We used a water quality modeling based scenario analysis approach to quantitatively evaluate the eutrophication responses of Lake Dianchi to an under-construction water diversion project. The primary analytic framework was built on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic, nutrient fate and transport, as well as algae dynamics model, which has previously been calibrated and validated using historical data. We designed 16 scenarios to analyze the water quality effects of three driving forces, including watershed nutrient loading, variations in diverted inflow water, and lake water level. A two-step statistical analysis consisting of an orthogonal test analysis and linear regression was then conducted to distinguish the contributions of various driving forces to lake water quality. The analysis results show that (a) the different ways of managing the diversion projects would result in different water quality response in Lake Dianchi, though the differences do not appear to be significant; (b) the maximum reduction in annual average and peak Chl-a concentration from the various ways of diversion project operation are respectively 11% and 5%; (c) a combined 66% watershed load reduction and water diversion can eliminate the lake hypoxia volume percentage from the existing 6.82% to 3.00%; and (d) the water diversion will decrease the occurrence of algal blooms, and the effect of algae reduction can be enhanced if diverted water are seasonally allocated such that wet season has more flows. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.