Recent studies overestimate colonization and extinction events for Adelie Penguin breeding colonies
Recent studies overestimate colonization and extinction events for Adelie Penguin breeding colonies
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最近的研究高估了阿德利企鹅繁殖群的殖民和灭绝事件
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发表时间：
2016
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通讯作者：
H. Weimerskirch
中科院分区：
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作者：
C. Southwell;L. Emmerson;A. Takahashi;A. Kato;C. Barbraud;K. Delord;H. Weimerskirch
摘要 对生态学家和保护生物学家来说，对集合种群动态进行建模可能是一个有用且强大的工具。然而，驱动复合种群动态的关键过程是殖民和灭绝事件，而这些事件是众所周知的难以研究的。最近对阿德利企鹅（Pygoscelis adeliae）繁殖种群的全球评估报告了使用最新高分辨率卫星图像和历史占领文献检查的占领观测中的多个潜在的殖民和灭绝事件，但强调这些事件应通过直接观测来证实。我们通过开发一个直接观察整个南极洲东部阿德利企鹅繁殖地占用情况的综合数据库来评估这些结论。该数据库允许使用在空间和时间上（同一繁殖季节）与卫星图像观测同时进行的直接观测来评估该地区 19 个拟议的殖民和灭绝事件中的 16 个。我们得出的结论是，所提议的 16 起殖民和灭绝事件都没有发生。一次真正的灭绝事件可能已从卫星图像中正确识别出来，但不可能做出结论性评估，因为直接观测和卫星观测在时间上并不同时发生。评估确定了卫星图像观测中的几个错误来源，包括因未能检测到小群体而造成的遗漏错误，以及因将其他生物和物理特征误认为阿德利企鹅鸟粪而造成的委托错误。占用数据库纠正了历史占用数据位置精度和准确度较差的问题。我们的研究结果提高了对阿德利企鹅种群动态关键参数的理解，并有助于未来改进对卫星图像的解释。
ABSTRACT Modeling metapopulation dynamics is potentially a useful and powerful tool for ecologists and conservation biologists. However, the key processes driving metapopulation dynamics are colonization and extinction events, which are notoriously difficult to study. A recent global assessment of Adelie Penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding populations reported multiple potential colonization and extinction events from occupancy observations using recent high-resolution satellite imagery and examination of historical occupancy literature, but emphasized that the events should be confirmed with direct observations. We evaluated these conclusions by developing a comprehensive database of direct observations of Adelie Penguin breeding site occupancy across East Antarctica. The database allowed 16 of 19 proposed colonization and extinction events in this region to be evaluated using direct observations that were concurrent in space and time (same breeding season) with observations from satellite imagery. We concluded that none of the 16 proposed colonization and extinction events had occurred. One true extinction event may have been correctly identified from satellite imagery, but a conclusive evaluation was not possible because the direct and satellite observations were not concurrent in time. The evaluation identified several sources of error in observations from satellite imagery, including errors of omission through failure to detect small colonies and errors of commission through misidentification of other biological and physical features as Adelie Penguin guano. The occupancy database corrected issues of poor precision and accuracy in locations of historical occupancy data. Our results improve understanding of key parameters for Adelie Penguin metapopulation dynamics and facilitate improved interpretation of satellite imagery in the future.