Implications of Climate Change for Ghana's Economy
Implications of Climate Change for Ghana's Economy
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DOI：
10.3390/su7067214
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Thurlow, James
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arndt, Channing;Asante, Felix;Thurlow, James
加纳的长期经济发展可能容易受到人为气候变化的影响，因为该国依赖雨水灌溉的农业、水电和未铺设路面的农村道路。我们使用一个可计算的一般均衡模型，通过详细的部门研究，估计气候变化在四个气候预测下对整个经济的影响。人们发现，气候变化总是会降低国家福利，贫困和城市家庭以及北方萨凡纳地区受到的影响最严重。然而，在气候影响的规模和部门影响渠道的相对重要性方面，各种情景之间存在着很大的差异，因此突出表明需要采取考虑到气候不确定性的多部门办法。我们对适应方案的分析表明，投资于农业研究和推广以及改善路面是减轻加纳气候变化造成的大部分损害的潜在成本效益手段。
Long-run economic development in Ghana is potentially vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change given the country's dependence on rain-fed agriculture, hydropower and unpaved rural roads. We use a computable general equilibrium model, informed by detailed sector studies, to estimate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under four climate projections. Climate change is found to always reduce national welfare, with poor and urban households and the northern Savannah zone being the worst affected. However, there is wide variation across scenarios in the size of climate impacts and in the relative importance of sectoral impact channels, thus underscoring the need for multi-sector approaches that account for climate uncertainty. Our analysis of adaptation options indicates that investing in agricultural research and extension, and improved road surfaces, are potentially cost-effective means of mitigating most of the damages from climate change in Ghana.