Decadal Sea Ice Prediction in the West Antarctic Seas with Ocean and Sea Ice Initializations
Decadal Sea Ice Prediction in the West Antarctic Seas with Ocean and Sea Ice Initializations
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-022-00529-z
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发表时间：
2022-09
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Y. Morioka;D. Iovino;A. Cipollone;S. Masina;S. Behera
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Morioka;D. Iovino;A. Cipollone;S. Masina;S. Behera
南极海冰在南极底水的形成中起着重要作用，南极底水在全球海洋中流动，影响着全球气候。在这里，我们证明了南极西部海域的海冰年代际变化可以使用耦合的一般环流模式进行预测。我们提出了三个年代际再预报实验，其中只有海表温度、海表温度和海冰浓度，或海表温度、海冰浓度和地下海洋温度和盐度与观测值初始化。我们发现初始化这三个分量对阿蒙森-别令斯豪森海海冰浓度的预测能力最高。该实验捕获了2000年代后期以后的年代际海冰增加，这与罗斯海的异常海冰平流和南极环极流增强引起的异常地下海洋冷却有关。熟练地预测年代际海冰变化得益于海洋和海冰的联合初始化。
Antarctic sea ice plays an important role in the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water that travels over global oceans and affects global climate. Here we demonstrate that decadal sea ice variability in the west Antarctic seas can be predicted with significant skills using a coupled general circulation model. We present three decadal reforecast experiments where only sea surface temperature, sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration, or sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are initialized with observations. We find that initializing all three components leads to the highest prediction skills of the sea ice concentration in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea. This experiment captures decadal sea ice increase after the late 2000s, which is linked to anomalous sea ice advection from the Ross Sea and anomalous subsurface ocean cooling by the strengthened Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Skillful prediction of decadal sea ice variability benefits from combined ocean and sea ice initializations.