Latent extinction risk and the future battlegrounds of mammal conservation
Latent extinction risk and the future battlegrounds of mammal conservation
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0510541103
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发表时间：
2006-03-14
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Purvis, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cardillo, M;Mace, GM;Purvis, A
全球保护优先通常强调物种丰富程度最高的地区，或许多物种被认为濒临灭绝的地区。然而，这些策略可能忽略了许多物种具有使它们对未来人类影响特别敏感但尚未受到威胁的生物学特征的领域，因为这种影响目前很低。在这篇文章中，我们使用潜在灭绝风险，即一个物种当前的灭绝风险与基于生物特征的模型预测的灭绝风险之间的差异，为世界上的哺乳动物确定这样的区域。具有积极潜在风险的物种目前受到的威胁比它们的生物学所显示的要小，通常是因为它们生活在相对来说仍未被人类活动改变的地区或栖息地。利用近4,000种哺乳动物的大型地理、生物和系统发育数据库，我们绘制了潜在风险的全球地理分布图，以揭示哺乳动物动物群仍然相对不受威胁但对干扰具有高度固有敏感性的地区。这些热点包括大片区域，如新北区北部针叶林和冻土带，这些区域在目前的优先排序计划中没有代表，以及高生物多样性区域，如从印度尼西亚到南太平洋的岛弧。将潜在的灭绝风险模式纳入保护规划，可以通过在物种开始衰退之前预测和防止物种衰退，来帮助防止未来的生物多样性丧失。
Global conservation prioritization usually emphasizes areas with highest species richness or where many species are thought to be at imminent risk of extinction. However, these strategies may overlook areas where many species have biological traits that make them particularly sensitive to future human impact but are not yet threatened because such impact is currently low. In this article, we identify such areas for the world's mammals using latent extinction risk, the discrepancy between a species' current extinction risk and that predicted from models on the basis of biological traits. Species with positive latent risk are currently less threatened than their biology would suggest, usually because they inhabit regions or habitats still comparatively unmodified by human activity. Using large new geographic, biological, and phylogenetic databases for nearly 4,000 mammal species, we map the global geographic distribution of latent risk to reveal areas where the mammal fauna is still relatively unthreatened but has high inherent sensitivity to disturbance. These hotspots include large areas such as the Nearctic boreal forests and tundra that are unrepresented in most current prioritization schemes, as well as high-biodiversity areas such as the island arc from Indonesia to the south Pacific. Incorporating latent extinction risk patterns into conservation planning could help guard against future biodiversity loss by anticipating and preventing species declines before they begin.