Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization
Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization
复制标题
对可持续发展和气候稳定途径的一致评估
DOI：
10.1111/j.1477-8947.2012.01460.x
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Keigo Akimoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lessmann;K.;U. Kornek;V. Bosetti;R. Dellink;J. Emmerling;J. Eyckmans;M. Nagashima;H.-P. Weikard;Z. Yang;Junichiro Oda;Keigo Akimoto
当今世界面临的许多困难问题都涉及需要权衡和协同增效的关系。本研究利用综合评估模型对一些替代情景进行了定量评估，并提供了与可持续发展和气候变化有关的若干指标，如收入（人均国内生产总值）、贫困、水资源压力、粮食获取、可持续能源使用、能源安全和海洋酸化等指标，其中一个情景中的指标权重较高。根据分析，经济增长有助于改善可持续发展的许多指标。另一方面，在非气候干预情景（基线情景）下，气候变化将导致一些严重的影响，如海洋酸化。深度减排，例如比工业化前水平高出2°C，可能会导致一些可持续发展指标恶化。气候变化减缓水平与若干可持续发展指标之间存在着复杂的权衡。要实现可持续发展和应对气候变化，就必须对经济增长采取微妙平衡的办法。
Many of the numerous difficult issues facing the world today involve relationships entailing trade‐offs and synergies. This study quantitatively assesses some alternative scenarios using integrated assessment models, and provides several indicators relating to sustainable development and climate change, such as indicators of income (per capita GDP), poverty, water stress, food access, sustainable energy use, energy security, and ocean acidification, with high consistencies among the indicators within a scenario. According to the analyses, economic growth helps improve many of the indicators for sustainable development. On the other hand, climate change will induce some severe impacts such as ocean acidification under a non‐climate intervention scenario (baseline scenario). Deep emission reductions, such as to 2°C above the pre‐industrial level, could cause some sustainable development indicators to worsen. There are complex trade‐offs between climate change mitigation levels and several sustainable development indicators. A delicately balanced approach to economic growth will be necessary for sustainable development and responses to climate change.