Natural- and Human-Induced Influences on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in Sichuan, Southwest China from 2003 to 2020
Natural- and Human-Induced Influences on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in Sichuan, Southwest China from 2003 to 2020
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DOI：
10.3390/rs14061369
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发表时间：
2022-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Wei, Pengzhi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cui, Lilu;Zhu, Chengkang;Wei, Pengzhi
对水资源变化的定量了解对于地方政府及时做出维护水安全的决策至关重要。基于2003-2020年重力恢复与气候试验（GRACE）及其后续试验（GRACE-FO）的数据，定量分析了自然和人为因素对四川省陆地水储量变化的影响。我们结合TWSC估计来自六个GRACE/GRACE-FO解决方案的基础上，每个解决方案的不确定性，从广义三角帽方法估计。采用相关系数法和贡献率法评价了降水量、蒸散量、径流量、水库蓄水量和总耗水量对全区及5个经济区水资源可持续利用的影响。结果表明，一个显着的改善，在融合TWSC被发现相比，来自一个单一的模型。区域蓄水量的增加速率为3.83 ± 0.54mm/a，自然因素的影响（CR为53.17%）大于人为因素的影响（CR为46.83%）。其中，由于水电站的迅速增加，水库蓄水量的贡献率最大（CR为42.32%），其次是降水量（CR为35.16%）、蒸散量（CR为15.86%）、总耗水量（CR为4.51%）和径流量（CR为2.15%）。在五大经济区中，成都平原的自然影响力最大（CR为48.21%），川西北的人为影响力最大（CR为61.37%）。川西北地区水库蓄水量对水资源的贡献率最高（61.11%），而攀西地区的降水量和蒸散量对水资源的贡献率最高（35.16%和15.86%）。研究结果表明，四川省水库蓄水量受自然因素和强烈的人类活动影响，尤其是水库蓄水量对水库蓄水量的影响非常显著。我们的研究成果可以为区域水资源的管理和评价提供有益的帮助。
A quantitative understanding of changes in water resources is crucial for local governments to enable timely decision-making to maintain water security. Here, we quantified natural-and human-induced influences on the terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) in Sichuan, Southwest China, with intensive water consumption and climate variability, based on the data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-on (GRACE-FO) during 2003-2020. We combined the TWSC estimates derived from six GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions based on the uncertainties of each solution estimated from the generalized three-cornered hat method. Metrics of correlation coefficient and contribution rate (CR) were used to evaluate the influence of precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, reservoir storage, and total water consumption on TWSC in the entire region and its five economic regions. The results showed that a significant improvement in the fused TWSC was found compared to those derived from a single model. The increase in regional water storage with a rate of 3.83 +/- 0.54 mm/a was more influenced by natural factors (CR was 53.17%) compared to human influence (CR was 46.83%). Among the factors, the contribution of reservoir storage was the largest (CR was 42.32%) due to the rapid increase in hydropower stations, followed by precipitation (CR was 35.16%), evapotranspiration (CR was 15.86%), total water consumption (CR was 4.51%), and runoff (CR was 2.15%). Among the five economic regions, natural influence on Chengdu Plain was the highest (CR was 48.21%), while human influence in Northwest Sichuan was the largest (CR was 61.37%). The highest CR of reservoir storage to TWSC was in Northwest Sichuan (61.11%), while the highest CRs of precipitation (35.16%) and evapotranspiration (15.86%) were both in PanXi region. The results suggest that TWSC in Sichuan is affected by natural factors and intense human activities, in particular, the effect of reservoir storage on TWSC is very significant. Our study results can provide beneficial help for the management and assessment of regional water resources.