The 1985 Central Chile Earthquake: A Repeat of Previous Great Earthquakes in the Region?
The 1985 Central Chile Earthquake: A Repeat of Previous Great Earthquakes in the Region?
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1985 年智利中部地震：该地区以往大地震的重演？
DOI：
10.1126/science.233.4762.449
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发表时间：
1986
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
G. Suárez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Comte;A. Eisenberg;E. Lorca;M. Pardo;L. Ponce;R. Saragoni;S. K. Singh;G. Suárez
1985年3月3日，智利中部沿海发生强烈地震（面波震级7.8级），对沿海城镇造成严重破坏。震前11天，主震震中附近发生强烈前震活动。 1985 年地震的余震确定了 170 x 110 平方公里的破裂面积。此次地震的预报是基于该地区大地震几乎恒定的重复时间（83×9年）。对以往地震的分析表明，该地区大震的破裂长度变化约为 3 倍。几乎恒定的重复时间和可变的破裂长度无法与地震复发的时间或滑动可预测模型相一致。该地区的大地震似乎涉及不同的破裂模式，但由于未知的原因，仍然保持周期性。历史数据表明，1985年破裂带以南的地区现在应该被视为一个高地震潜力的缺口，可能在未来几十年内发生大地震时破裂。
A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 � 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.