Identification of technology development trends based on subject-action-object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells
Identification of technology development trends based on subject-action-object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells
复制标题
基于主-动-客分析的技术发展趋势识别：以染料敏化太阳能电池为例
DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2015.05.014
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Porter Alan L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Xuefeng;Qiu Pengjun;Zhu Donghua;Mitkova Liliana;Lei Ming;Porter Alan L.
确定技术发展趋势对于支持决策者预测和确定相关的创新活动和工业增长至关重要。与传统的基于关键词的定量方法的技术发展趋势不同，传统的基于关键词的定量方法通常通过寻找关键技术来预测趋势，而不显示如何开发它们，我们的方法可以识别技术领域的未来方向和行业目标，并显示实现这些目标的详细路径。因此，我们的方法构建了技术路线图（TRM）的七个层次（材料，技术，影响因素，组件，产品，目标，未来方向）的基础上，主体-行动-客体分析。这些TRM要素之间的相互作用可以显示将其发展为一种趋势的详细路径。此外，该方法还设置了三个指标作为判别标准，以通过参与技术创新场景来寻找能够支持趋势的关键参与者。以染料敏化太阳能电池（DSSC）为例说明了我们的方法的详细过程。研究结果揭示了DSSC领域的发展趋势，实现这些目标的详细路径以及支持这些目标的主要国家。
Identification of technology development trends is essential for supporting decision makers in forecasting and identifying related innovation activities and industrial growth. Different from the traditional technology development trends based on keyword-based quantitative methods, which usually predict trends by finding key technologies without showing how to develop them, our method allows the identification of future direction and industry goal for the technology domain and shows detailed paths for achieving them. Thus, our method has constructed technology roadmapping (TRM) with seven layers (material, technology, influencing factor, component, product, goal, and future direction) on the basis of subject–action–object analysis. The detailed paths for developing this as a trend can be shown by the interaction among these TRM elements. In addition, the method also sets three indicators as a discriminating standard to find key players that can support the trend by engaging technological innovation scenarios. The case of a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) is exemplified to illustrate the detailed procedure of our method. The results reveal the development trends in the field of DSSCs, the detailed paths to achieve them, and key countries that support them.