Hindsight Bias
Hindsight Bias
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DOI：
10.1177/1745691612454303
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
12.6
通讯作者：
Vohs, Kathleen D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Roese, Neal J.;Vohs, Kathleen D.
当人们觉得自己“一直都知道”时，就会出现后见之明的偏见，也就是说，他们认为一件事在知道之后比知道之前更容易预测。后见之明偏见体现了三个方面的组合：记忆扭曲，对事件客观可能性的信念，或对自己预测能力的主观信念。后见之明偏见源于(a)认知输入（人们有选择地回忆起与他们现在所知道的真实相符的信息，并通过语义构建将意义强加于自己的知识），(b)元认知输入（人们对过去结果的理解可能被错误地归因于其假设的先验可能性），以及(c)动机输入（人们需要将世界视为有序和可预测的，并避免因问题而受到指责）。事后偏见的后果包括对过去的单一因果理解的目光短浅（忽视其他合理的解释），以及对自己判断的确定性的普遍过度自信。可视化和理解数据集的新技术可能会产生意想不到的后果，即加剧后见之明的偏见，但鼓励人们考虑对给定结果的其他因果解释的干预可以减少后见之明的偏见。
Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they "knew it all along," that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events' objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one's own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one's judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.