Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California
Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-011-9894-5
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发表时间：
2012-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Jones, Lucy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dettinger, Michael D.;Ralph, F. Martin;Jones, Lucy
美国地质勘探局的多重危害项目正在与许多机构合作，评估和计划可能造成的危害和损害的极端冬季风暴影响加州。一个假设的风暴情景的大气和水文方面已经被量化，作为评估应急准备和洪水规划工作对人类、基础设施、经济和环境影响的基础。为了确保情景描述的科学可靠性和必要的详细程度，选定的历史风暴事件被连接起来，以描述几个主要风暴在该州的快速到来，产生的降水总量和径流率超过了历史风暴期间发生的降水总量和径流率。这种串联允许场景设计者避免任意缩放，并基于19世纪和20世纪的历史事件，当时风暴在该州停滞，极端风暴快速连续到达。通过使用1969年1月和1986年2月风暴条件的区域天气模型，将历史风暴序列的连接全球记录缩小到6 km和2 km网格，为所谓的ARkStorm情景开发了动态一致的每小时降水、温度、气压（考虑风暴潮和海岸侵蚀）和加州的风。天气模型的输出结果随后被用于迫使水文模型模拟ARkStorm径流，以更好地了解由此产生的洪水风险。用于构建此场景的方法可以应用于其他紧急情况、非紧急情况和非加利福尼亚州的应用程序。
The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications.