Simulating a future smart city: An integrated land use-energy model
Simulating a future smart city: An integrated land use-energy model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.01.061
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发表时间：
2013-12
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Y. Yamagata;H. Seya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Yamagata;H. Seya
设计一座应对二氧化碳减排的未来智慧城市(FSC)已成为未来20年的紧迫任务之一。由于这些要素之间的相互作用，实现FSC的一个有希望的方法是将适当的土地利用(紧凑型城市与节能建筑和光伏电池板(PV))、交通(电动汽车(EV)和公共交通系统)和能源系统(智能电网系统)结合起来。然而，很少有模型能够以集成的方式模拟这些要素。本文提出了综合模型的概念，并展示了为世界上最大的特大城市东京都创建的模型中的土地利用-能源部分。首先，构建了研究区土地利用的空间显式模型(城市经济模型)，并利用已有的统计数据对模型进行了标定。其次，使用该模型创建了2050年未来可能的紧凑/分散城市情景。第三，模拟了在两种城市情景下，假设在研究区内所有独立房屋的屋顶上安装PVS的电力需求和供应的日内动态(小时)。结果表明，[1]“紧凑型”城市形态可能有助于减少居民部门的电力需求，但[2]这种情景下的光伏供应也可能会因为独立住宅份额的减少而减少。因此，在紧凑的城市场景中，重要的是讨论如何有效利用郊区的空置区域，这些空置区域可以用于大型光伏设施，或者重新种植植物以缓解城市热岛效应。
Designing a future smart city (FSC) that copes with the reduction of CO2has become one of the urgent tasks of the next 20 years. One promising approach to achieve FSC is to combine appropriate land use (compact city with energy efficient buildings and photovoltaic panels (PVs)), transportation (electric vehicles (EVs) and public transportation system) and energy systems (smart grid systems), because of the interaction between these elements. However, there are few models which simulate these elements in an integrated manner. This paper presents the concept of the integrated model, and shows the land use-energy part of the model created for the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest Mega city in the world. Firstly, a spatially explicit land use model (urban economic model) is constructed for the study area, and the model is calibrated using existing statistical data. Secondly, possible future compact/dispersion city scenarios for the year 2050 are created using the model. Thirdly, intra-day dynamics (hourly) of electricity demand and supply from PVs, which is assumed to be installed to the roofs of all detached houses in the study area, under two urban scenarios is simulated. The obtained results suggest that [1] “compact” urban form may contribute to the reduction of electricity demand from the residential sector, but [2] PV-supply under the scenario may also be reduced because of the decreased share of detached houses. Hence in the compact city scenario, it is important to discuss the effective use of vacant areas in suburbs, which may be used for large PV installations, or be re-vegetated to mitigate urban heat island effects.