"You've Come a Long Way, Baby": The Convergence in Age Patterns of Lung Cancer Mortality by Sex, United States, 1959-2013
"You've Come a Long Way, Baby": The Convergence in Age Patterns of Lung Cancer Mortality by Sex, United States, 1959-2013
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DOI：
10.1080/19485565.2016.1262755
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Noymer, Andrew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rivadeneira, Natalie A.;Noymer, Andrew
我们分析了1959-2013年美国按年龄和性别划分的肺癌死亡率。众所周知，男性肺癌死亡率超过女性，而吸烟是造成性别差异的主要原因。我们详细阐述了这一知识，表明与大多数死亡原因不同，肺癌死亡率模式与二次Gompertz模型非常吻合，即，对数死亡率是年龄的二次曲线，众数在70岁以上。通过对烟草使用性别差异的一些额外历史数据，二次模型有助于描绘出一幅清晰的定量图像，即按性别划分的肺癌死亡率的行为主导趋同。性别特异性死亡率曲线的形状已经急剧收敛：自1983年以来，性别的二次Gompertz死亡率曲线的形状在统计上已经无法区分。女性肺癌死亡率模式显示出从不吸烟模式向吸烟模式的转变。二次Gompertzian肺癌死亡率的模态年龄在全球烟草流行的早期阶段的国家具有潜在的应用价值。在模态年龄下降（同比）的地方，我们可以推断当地肺癌流行正在恶化，而在模态年龄上升的地方，它已经开始减弱。
We analyze lung cancer mortality by age and sex in the United States, 1959-2013. It is already known that male lung cancer death rates exceed those of women and that tobacco use is the leading reason for the sex difference. We elaborate on this knowledge by showing that unlike most causes of death, lung cancer mortality patterns by age are a very good fit to a quadratic-Gompertz model, i.e., log mortality rates are quadratic by age, with the mode above age 70. With a little additional historical data on sex differences in tobacco use, the quadratic models help to paint a clear quantitative picture of behavior-led convergence in lung cancer mortality by sex. The shape of the sex-specific mortality curves have converged dramatically: since 1983, the sexes have had statistically indistinguishable shapes of their quadratic-Gompertz mortality curves. Female lung cancer mortality patterns have shown a transformation from a nonsmoking to a smoking pattern. The modal age of the quadratic-Gompertzian lung cancer death rates has potential application in countries at earlier stages of the global tobacco epidemic. Where the modal age is falling (year-on-year), we can infer that the local lung cancer epidemic is getting worse, and where it is rising, that it has begun to abate.