Atmospheric blocks modulate the odds of heavy precipitation events in Europe
Atmospheric blocks modulate the odds of heavy precipitation events in Europe
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-019-04779-0
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发表时间：
2019-05
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Sina Lenggenhager;O. Martius
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sina Lenggenhager;O. Martius
欧洲-大西洋地区的大气层区块与欧洲区域范围强降水事件的频率之间存在统计联系。研究了不同地理位置的块体以及夏季和冬季欧洲有块体的1、3和5天累积强降水概率的变化。结果表明，在北大西洋和欧洲的阻塞时段，强降水事件发生的几率显著增加。位于更东边的地块对欧洲上空发生强降水事件的可能性影响有限。空间格局非常多样，并强烈依赖于区块的位置和季节。一般情况下，阻塞型反气旋区域发生强降水的几率降低，西南至东南方向和以北地区强降水发生的几率增加。强降水几率增加的地区往往与风暴路径的位置重合。
A statistical link is presented between atmospheric blocks in the Euro-Atlantic sector and the frequency of regional-scale heavy precipitation events in Europe. Changes in the odds of European 1-, 3- and 5-day accumulation heavy precipitation in the presence of a block are investigated for different geographical locations of blocks and for summer and winter. The results show a significant modulation of the odds of heavy precipitation events during blocking episodes over the North-Atlantic and Europe. Blocks located further east have only limited effects on the odds of heavy precipitation events over Europe. The spatial patterns are very diverse and are strongly dependent on the location of the blocks and on the season. Generally, the odds of heavy precipitation events are reduced in the area of the blocking anticyclone and increased in the areas southwest to southeast of it and in some cases also north of it. Often areas with increased odds of heavy precipitation coincide with the location of the storm track.