Reducing Aircraft Climb Trajectory Prediction Errors with Top-of-Climb Data
Reducing Aircraft Climb Trajectory Prediction Errors with Top-of-Climb Data
复制标题
利用爬升顶部数据减少飞机爬升轨迹预测误差
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
David P. Thipphavong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
David P. Thipphavong
在起飞重量、推力、爬升剖面和其它参数方面，轨迹预测器所使用的飞机性能模型的不准确性导致在爬升阶段期间经常超过1000英尺的垂直间隔标准的高度误差。本研究探讨了高度轨迹预测误差的潜在减少，如果只有一个额外的参数变得可用：顶部爬升（TOC）时间。一个简单的算法，搜索通过一组候选轨迹预测的一个最接近匹配TOC时间开发和评估使用的数据集超过1000实际沃斯堡中心攀登飞行。与实时研究原型的基线轨迹预测相比，它将5分钟预测时间的高度均方根误差（RMSE）降低了38%。在沃斯堡中心使用最频繁的十种飞机类型中，巴西航空工业公司135和145支线飞机的改进幅度最小，为30%。其他机型的五分钟高度RMSE均低于1000尺垂直间隔标准，整体下降54%。当对TOC数据施加多达三分钟的扰动时，TOC匹配方法在较高的高度和较短的预测前瞻时间内效果较差。
The inaccuracies of the aircraft performance models utilized by trajectory predictors in terms of takeoff weight, thrust, climb profile, and other parameters result in altitude errors that often exceed the vertical separation standard of 1000 feet during the climb phase. This study investigates the potential reduction in altitude trajectory prediction errors that could be achieved if just one additional parameter became available: top-of-climb (TOC) time. A simple algorithm that searches through a set of candidate trajectory predictions for the one that most closely matches TOC time was developed and evaluated using a data set of more than 1000 actual Fort Worth Center climbing flights. Compared to the baseline trajectory predictions of a real-time research prototype, it lowered the altitude root mean square error (RMSE) for a five-minute prediction time by 38%. The smallest improvements among the ten most frequent aircraft types in Fort Worth Center were 30% for Embraer 135 and 145 regional jets. The five-minute altitude RMSE of the other aircraft types were all less than the 1000-foot vertical separation standard with an overall decrease of 54%. When perturbations of as much as three minutes were applied to the TOC data, the TOC-matching method was less effective at higher altitudes and for shorter prediction look-ahead times.