The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China VIII—The Effects of Climate Change on Planting Boundaries of Different Winte-Spring Varieties of Winter Wheat in China
The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China VIII—The Effects of Climate Change on Planting Boundaries of Different Winte-Spring Varieties of Winter Wheat in China
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作者：
C. Fu
【目的】在全球气候变化的背景下，中国冬季气温自20世纪80年代以来显著升高，这一变化对中国不同冬小麦品种的种植边界有何影响？为了回答这一科学问题，笔者以1981年为时间节点，将1951-2010年划分为两个时期，对比分析了中国强、弱、冬、春型冬小麦品种在后期冬季气温升高的影响下，北种界、南种界和可能种植面积的变化特征。【方法】根据限制冬小麦正常越冬的冻害指数和影响冬小麦春化天数的指数，确定不同类型冬小麦的南北边界。利用ArcGIS软件绘制不同冬小麦品种的种植面积和覆盖面积的变化情况。【结果】与1951-1980年相比，1981-2010年期间，强冬冬小麦种植边界沿宁夏-甘肃和河北-辽宁的北移趋势最为显著，分别为200 km和100 km；强冬冬小麦种植边界沿东部比西部的北移趋势更为显著，空间位移为90 km江苏、安徽地区强冬性冬小麦可种植面积增加了36.24×10 4 km2。冬季冬小麦北部种植边界沿山东和河北显著向北移动310 km，冬季冬小麦南部种植边界沿贵州毕节和西水站显著向西移动95 km，中国冬季冬小麦可能种植面积总计增加17.75×10 4 km 2。弱冬小麦北部种植边界在皖、苏、豫、鲁四省共同边界附近变化趋势显著，向北移动120 ~ 370 km，西部地区变化趋势不明显，南部弱冬小麦种植边界略有向北移动，但中国弱冬小麦可种植面积总体增加15.70×10 4 km 2。春型冬小麦种植边界北部沿江苏、安徽和河南的移动趋势明显，向北移动了230 km，而西部地区的变化趋势不显著，中国春型冬小麦的种植面积增加了23.44×10 4 km2。华北北部以强冬型冬小麦品种为主，华南地区以春型冬小麦品种为主，河南、山东和四川地区冬小麦品种种植可能性相对较大，以冬性和弱冬性冬小麦品种为主。【结论】由于中国冬季气温明显升高，与1951-1980年相比，1981-2010年中国不同冬小麦品种的种植边界显著北移，且北方种植边界北移趋势大于南方种植边界，冬小麦的可种植面积均增加，尤其是强冬性冬小麦的种植面积移动趋势最为显著边界和可能的种植面积。
【Objective】 Under the background of global climate change,the temperature in winter increased significantly from 1980s in China,how would this change affect the planting boundary of different winterness varieties of winter wheat in China? In order to answer this scientific question,the authors took the year 1981 as a time node and divided the interval 1951-2010 into two periods,then comparatively analyzed the change characteristics of north planting boundaries,south planting boundary and possible planting areas for strong winterness,winterness,weak winterness,and springness type winter wheat varieties in China due to increased temperature in winter during the latter period.【Method】 The northern and southern boundaries of different winter wheat types were defined according to the freezing damage index which restricted normal overwintering of winter wheat and the index which affects vernalization days of winter wheat.The changes of planting areas as well as coverage square meters of different winter wheat types were drawn with ArcGIS software.【Result】 Compared with the period 1951-1980,in the period 1981-2010,the northern planting boundary of strong winterness winter wheat showed the most significant northward moving trend along Ningxia to Gansu and Hebei to Liaoning,with a spatial shift of 200 km and 100 km,respectively,and the southern planting boundary of strong winterness winter wheat showed a relatively more significant northward moving trend in the eastern region than the western region,with a spatial shift of 90 km along Jiangsu and Anhui zone,in addition,the possible planting area of strong winterness winter wheat in China increased by 36.24×10 4 km 2 in total.The northern planting boundary of winterness winter wheat moved significantly along Shandong and Hebei,with a northward shift of 310 km,and the southern planting boundary of winterness winter wheat showed a significant westward moving trend along Bijie and Xishui stations in Guizhou,with a spatial shift of 95 km,also,the possible planting area of winterness winter wheat in China increased by 17.75×10 4 km 2 in total.The northern planting boundary of weak winterness winter wheat showed a significant change trend around the common border of Anhui,Jiangsu,Henan and Shandong,with a northward shift of 120-370 km,yet the change trend in the western region was insignificant,the southern planting boundary of weak winterness winter wheat showed a slight northward moving trend,nevertheless,the possible planting area of weak winterness winter wheat in China increased by 15.70×10 4 km 2 in total.The northern planting boundary of springness type winter wheat showed a significant moving trend along Jiangsu,Anhui and Henan,with a northward shift of 230 km,however,the change trend in the western region was insignificant,and the possible planting area of springness type winter wheat in China increased by 23.44×10 4 km 2 in total.The north of North China was oriented by strong winterness winter wheat variety,South China was oriented by springness type winter wheat,there were relatively more possible planting winter wheat varieties in Henan,Shandong and Sichuan while winterness and weak winterness winter wheat were the oriented varieties.【Conclusion】 Due to the temperature in winter increasing obviously in China,compared to period 1951-1980,the planting boundaries of different winter wheat varieties in China moved northward significantly in period 1981-2010,and the northward moving trend of northern planting boundaries was more than that of southern planting boundaries,the possible planting area of winter wheat increased in all,especially,the strong winterness winter wheat showed the most significant moving trend in planting boundaries and possible planting area.