Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation
Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation
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DOI：
10.1029/2005gl024954
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发表时间：
2006-02-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Giorgi, F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao, XJ;Pal, JS;Giorgi, F
使用国际理论物理中心区域气候模式RegCM3对地中海区域的高分辨率气候变化进行模拟。在20 km网格间距上对当前和未来气候（IPCC A2情景）进行了两组多年代际模拟。我们分析了降水平均值和极端值的变化，发现变化信号显示出季节性依赖的细尺度结构，特别是在阿尔卑斯地区和伊比利亚半岛，意大利和希腊半岛的地形强迫和环流的变化。在冬季，地中海北方地区的平均降水量变化为正，而地中海南部地区为负，而除某些局部地区外，其他季节的降水量大多减少（特别是夏季）。极端降水事件和干旱期的变化表明，降水分布不仅发生了变化，而且也在扩大，导致洪水和干旱的事件发生的可能性增加。
Results are presented from high resolution climate change simulations over the Mediterranean region using the ICTP Regional Climate Model, RegCM3. Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate (IPCC A2 scenario). We analyze changes in precipitation mean and extremes and find that the change signal shows seasonally dependent fine scale structure in response to the topographic forcing and changes in circulation, especially over the Alpine region and the Iberian, Italian and Hellenic peninsulas. In winter, the mean precipitation change is positive in the Northern Mediterranean regions and negative in the Southern Mediterranean, while precipitation in the other seasons mostly decreases (especially in summer), except over some localized areas. Changes in extreme precipitation events and dry spells suggest not only shifts, but also a broadening, of the precipitation distribution, with an increased probability of occurrence of events conducive to both floods and droughts.