Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies
Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies
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小型开放经济体货币政策规则的确定性和可学习性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Vicente Tuesta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Luis;Vicente Tuesta
本文在Gali和Monacelli（2005）建立的一个简单的新凯恩斯主义小型开放经济模型中，评估了在何种条件下不同的泰勒型规则导致理性预期均衡的确定性和预期稳定性（E-稳定性）。特别地，我们将Bullard和Mitra（2002）关于封闭经济中的确定性和E-稳定性的结果扩展到这个小型开放经济框架。我们的研究结果突出了泰勒原理与小型开放经济中均衡的确定性和可学习性之间的重要联系。更重要的是，开放程度加上货币当局所采取的政策规则的性质，可能会在重要方面改变这种联系。一个关键的发现是，与Bullard和Mitra相反，基于预期的规则，涉及CPI和/或名义汇率限制了E-稳定的区域，泰勒原则并不能保证E-稳定。我们还表明，某些形式的管理汇率规则可以帮助缓解不确定性和预期不稳定的问题，但这些规则可能是不可取的，因为它们促进了经济的更大波动。
This paper evaluates under which conditions different Taylor-type rules lead to determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibrium in a simple New Keynesian small open economy model, developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). In particular, we extend the Bullard and Mitra (2002) results of determinacy and E-stability in a closed economy to this small open economy framework. Our results highlight an important link between the Taylor principle and both determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in small open economies. More importantly, the degree of openness coupled with the nature of the policy rule adopted by the monetary authorities might change this link in important ways. A key finding is that, contrary to Bullard and Mitra, expectations-based rules that involve the CPI and/or the nominal exchange rate limit the region of E-stability and the Taylor Principle does not guarantee E-stability. We also show that some forms of managed exchange rate rules can help to alleviate problems of both indeterminacy and expectational instability, yet these rules might not be desirable since they promote greater volatility in the economy.