CONFIDENCE-LIMITS ON PHYLOGENIES - AN APPROACH USING THE BOOTSTRAP
CONFIDENCE-LIMITS ON PHYLOGENIES - AN APPROACH USING THE BOOTSTRAP
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1558-5646.1985.tb00420.x
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发表时间：
1985-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
FELSENSTEIN, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
FELSENSTEIN, J
最近开发的称为“bootstrap”的统计方法可用于将置信区间设置在概率上。它涉及到从自己的数据中恢复点，并进行替换，以创建一系列与原始数据大小相同的自举样本。每一个都进行了分析，并得出的估计值之间的变化，以表明在从原始数据进行估计时所涉及的误差大小。在系统发生的情况下，有人认为，适当的恢复方法是保留所有的原始物种，同时对具有替换的特征进行采样，假设这些特征是由系统学家独立绘制的，并且是独立进化的。多数规则共识树可以用来构建一个系统发生，显示出现在大多数自助样本中的所有推断的单系群。如果一个群体在95%以上的时间里出现，那么它的证据就被认为是统计学上显著的。现有的计算机程序可以通过使用字符的权重来分析不同的自举样本，字符的权重是它在自举抽样中被绘制的次数。当所有性状都完全兼容时，正如Hennig所设想的那样，自举抽样就变得不必要了;如果一个群体由三个或更多性状定义，自举方法将为该群体显示重要的证据。
The recently‐developed statistical method known as the “bootstrap” can be used to place confidence intervals on phylogenies. It involves resampling points from one's own data, with replacement, to create a series of bootstrap samples of the same size as the original data. Each of these is analyzed, and the variation among the resulting estimates taken to indicate the size of the error involved in making estimates from the original data. In the case of phylogenies, it is argued that the proper method of resampling is to keep all of the original species while sampling characters with replacement, under the assumption that the characters have been independently drawn by the systematist and have evolved independently. Majority‐rule consensus trees can be used to construct a phylogeny showing all of the inferred monophyletic groups that occurred in a majority of the bootstrap samples. If a group shows up 95% of the time or more, the evidence for it is taken to be statistically significant. Existing computer programs can be used to analyze different bootstrap samples by using weights on the characters, the weight of a character being how many times it was drawn in bootstrap sampling. When all characters are perfectly compatible, as envisioned by Hennig, bootstrap sampling becomes unnecessary; the bootstrap method would show significant evidence for a group if it is defined by three or more characters.