Doing flood risk modelling differently: Evaluating the potential for participatory techniques to broaden flood risk management decision-making
Doing flood risk modelling differently: Evaluating the potential for participatory techniques to broaden flood risk management decision-making
复制标题
以不同的方式进行洪水风险建模：评估参与式技术扩大洪水风险管理决策的潜力
DOI：
10.1111/jfr3.12757
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Maskrey S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Maskrey S
洪水风险管理（FRM）的责任日益下放给更广泛的利益相关者，多个洪水风险管理机构和处于风险中的社区的有效参与需要参与方法，以补充和尽可能充分利用水文和水力洪水模型。利益相关者的参与必须在参与理想和FRM决策的现有机制的实际现实之间取得一个经过深思熟虑的平衡。本文评估了利用参与式建模促进FRM建模者、实践者和其他利益相关者参与和共同生产知识的潜力。参与式建模提供了一种灵活、通用的方法，但结构充分，可以支持有意义的科学、经验和地方知识的表达，从而产生可以很容易地整合到现有的共享决策程序中的结果。本文阐述了参与性模型对森林资源管理有用的特点，即易于获取、透明、适应性强、可评估和整体性强。这些品质被用作评估三种流行的参与技术的实际效用的标准：贝叶斯网络、系统动力学和模糊认知映射。案例研究用于说明每种技术如何有益于FRM选项评估和决策。虽然每种技术都有潜力，但没有一种是理想的，并且本地环境将指导选择哪种技术最适合交付有效的涉众参与。
Responsibility for flood risk management (FRM) is increasingly being devolved to a wider set of stakeholders, and effective participation by multiple FRM agencies and communities at risk calls for engagement approaches that supplement and make the best possible use of hydrologic and hydraulic flood modelling. Stakeholder engagement must strike a considered balance between participation ideals and the pragmatic realities of existing mechanisms for FRM decision‐making. This article evaluates the potential for using participatory modelling to facilitate engagement and co‐production of knowledge by FRM modellers, practitioners and other stakeholders. Participatory modelling offers an approach that is flexible and versatile, yet sufficiently structured that it can support meaningful representation of scientific, empirical and local knowledges in producing outcomes that can readily be integrated into existing procedures for shared decision‐making. This article frames the qualities of participatory modelling useful to FRM, as being accessible, transparent, adaptable, evaluative and holistic. These qualities are used as criteria with which to assess the practical utility of three popular participatory techniques: Bayesian networks, system dynamics and fuzzy cognitive mapping. Case studies are used to illustrate how each technique might benefit FRM options appraisal and decision‐making. While each technique has potential, none is ideal, and local contexts will guide selection of which technique is best suited to deliver effective stakeholder participation.