The Earth has humans, so why don't our climate models?
The Earth has humans, so why don't our climate models?
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-020-02897-x
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发表时间：
2020-10-24
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Kinzig, Ann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beckage, Brian;Lacasse, Katherine;Kinzig, Ann
虽然气候模型在近几十年来在复杂性方面迅速发展，但它们缺乏对人类行为和社会系统的动态表示，尽管社会过程和气候之间存在强烈的反馈。气候变化的影响改变了人们对风险和排放行为的看法，反过来又影响了气候变化的速度和幅度。解决气候模型的这一缺陷需要大量的跨学科努力，将气候模型和人类行为模型结合起来。我们提出了一个多模型的方法，考虑了一系列的理论和人类行为和社会系统的实现，类似于多模型的方法，已被用来探索物理气候系统。我们描述了将社会因素与气候过程联系起来的重要性，并确定了推进耦合社会气候模型发展所必需的四个优先事项。
While climate models have rapidly advanced in sophistication over recent decades, they lack dynamic representation of human behavior and social systems despite strong feedbacks between social processes and climate. The impacts of climate change alter perceptions of risk and emissions behavior that, in turn, influence the rate and magnitude of climate change. Addressing this deficiency in climate models requires a substantial interdisciplinary effort to couple models of climate and human behavior. We suggest a multi-model approach that considers a range of theories and implementations of human behavior and social systems, similar to the multi-model approach that has been used to explore the physical climate system. We describe the importance of linking social factors with climate processes and identify four priorities essential to advancing the development of coupled social-climate models.