Paradoxes and synergies: Optimizing management of a deadly virus in an endangered carnivore
Paradoxes and synergies: Optimizing management of a deadly virus in an endangered carnivore
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悖论与协同作用：优化对濒临灭绝的食肉动物致命病毒的管理
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.14165
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Craft, Meggan E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gilbertson, Marie L.;Onorato, Dave;Cunningham, Mark;VandeWoude, Sue;Craft, Meggan E.
野生动物中的病原体管理策略通常伴随着一系列不确定因素，如疫苗的效力或干预措施的潜在意外后果。在这种不确定性的背景下，疾病传播模型可以为优化病原体管理提供关键的见解，特别是对受保护关注的物种。濒临灭绝的佛罗里达豹在2002-2004年经历了猫白血病病毒(FeLV)的爆发，并继续受到这种致命病毒的影响。正在进行的管理工作旨在减轻FeLV对黑豹的影响，但关于哪些策略可能是最有效和最有效的信息有限。我们使用基于模拟的方法来确定黑豹的最佳FeLV管理策略。我们模拟了主动式FeLV管理策略(即主动式疫苗接种)和几种反应性策略的使用，包括反应性疫苗接种和检测和移除。疫苗接种策略解释了疫苗诱导免疫不完善的原因，特别是部分免疫，在部分免疫中，所有疫苗接种人员都实现了部分病原体保护。我们比较了这些不同策略在减少FeLV死亡数量和暴发持续时间方面的有效性。结果表明，不充分的主动疫苗接种可能会矛盾地增加FeLV爆发中疾病诱导的死亡数量。这些影响很可能是由于疫苗免疫不完善导致疫苗接种者成为半敏感人群，从而使疫情在其他有利于消退的情况下持续存在。然而，主动接种与反应性检测和清除或疫苗接种相结合，在减少FeLV暴发的影响方面具有协同效应，突出了在病原体管理中使用混合策略的重要性。管理层知情的疾病模拟是确定意想不到的负面后果和病原体管理战略之间的协同作用的重要工具。特别是，我们发现不完善的疫苗诱导免疫需要进一步考虑，以避免在某些情况下无意地恶化流行病。然而，混合前瞻性和反应性干预措施可以改善病原体控制，同时减少与不完善干预措施相关的不确定性。
Pathogen management strategies in wildlife are typically accompanied by an array of uncertainties such as the efficacy of vaccines or potential unintended consequences of interventions. In the context of such uncertainties, models of disease transmission can provide critical insight for optimizing pathogen management, especially for species of conservation concern. The endangered Florida panther experienced an outbreak of feline leukaemia virus (FeLV) in 2002–2004, and continues to be affected by this deadly virus. Ongoing management efforts aim to mitigate the effects of FeLV on panthers, but with limited information about which strategies may be most effective and efficient.We used a simulation‐based approach to determine optimal FeLV management strategies in panthers. We simulated the use of proactive FeLV management strategies (i.e. proactive vaccination) and several reactive strategies, including reactive vaccination and test‐and‐removal. Vaccination strategies accounted for imperfect vaccine‐induced immunity, specifically partial immunity in which all vaccinates achieve partial pathogen protection. We compared the effectiveness of these different strategies in mitigating the number of FeLV mortalities and the duration of outbreaks.Results showed that inadequate proactive vaccination can paradoxically increase the number of disease‐induced mortalities in FeLV outbreaks. These effects were most likely due to imperfect vaccine immunity causing vaccinates to serve as a semi‐susceptible population, thereby allowing outbreaks to persist in circumstances otherwise conducive to fadeout. Combinations of proactive vaccination with reactive test‐and‐removal or vaccination, however, had a synergistic effect in reducing the impacts of FeLV outbreaks, highlighting the importance of using mixed strategies in pathogen management.Synthesis and applications. Management‐informed disease simulations are an important tool for identifying unexpected negative consequences and synergies among pathogen management strategies. In particular, we find that imperfect vaccine‐induced immunity necessitates further consideration to avoid unintentionally worsening epidemics in some conditions. However, mixing proactive and reactive interventions can improve pathogen control while mitigating uncertainties associated with imperfect interventions.