Efficiency and risks in global value chains in the context of COVID-19
Efficiency and risks in global value chains in the context of COVID-19
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COVID-19 背景下全球价值链的效率和风险
DOI：
10.1787/3e4b7ecf-en
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. V. Tongeren
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Christine Arriola;Sophie Guilloux;Seunghee Koh;P. Kowalski;Elena Rusticelli;F. V. Tongeren
COVID-19疫情爆发以及由此导致的部分制造业和医疗产品供应链中断，重新引发了关于全球化成本和收益的辩论，尤其是关于全球价值链中生产的国际分割所带来的风险。尽管全球价值链在COVID-19疫情初期的几个案例中帮助解决了供应短缺问题，但大部分政策辩论都集中在扩大全球价值链国际专业化所带来的收益是否值得承担传递冲击的相关风险，甚至政府是否应该使用政策工具来“重新定位”全球价值链。但重新本地化也可能意味着多样化程度降低，从而限制了缓冲冲击的空间。本文以经合组织正在进行的分析为基础，旨在提供经验证据，为有关这些问题的讨论提供信息和指导。首先，它简要回顾了关键问题和过去的经验教训，并确定了影响供应链风险暴露的世界贸易和全球价值链参与的主要特点。随后，它提出了一套经济模型模拟使用经合组织的可计算一般均衡（CGE）的贸易模型麦德龙阐明程式化的再本地化政策方案的后果进行的关键结果。在这种情况下，各国受外国冲击的程度较低，但它们的效率也较低，通过贸易缓冲冲击的能力也较弱。从数量上看，后一种效应往往占主导地位：全球价值链的重新本地化将使大多数国家的经济效率和稳定性降低。因此，政策导致全球价值链回流的经济理由并不充分。然而，政府仍有余地与企业共同努力，改善风险准备。
The COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting disruptions in supply chains of some manufacturing and medical products have renewed the debate on costs and benefits of globalisation and, particularly, on risks associated with international fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs). While GVCs helped addressing supply shortages in several cases already during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the policy debate has concentrated on whether the gains from expanding international specialisation in GVCs are worth the associated risks of transmission of shocks and even whether governments should use policy tools to ‘re-localise’ GVCs. But re-localising may also mean less diversification and thereby limit the scope for cushioning shocks. This paper builds on on-going OECD analysis and aims at providing empirical evidence to inform and guide discussion on these questions. First, it reviews briefly the key issues and lessons learnt from the past, and identifies the main features of world trade and GVC participation that influence exposures to risks in supply chains. Subsequently, it presents key results of a set of economic model simulations conducted using the OECD’s computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model METRO to shed light on the consequences of a stylised re-localisation policy scenario. In this scenario, countries are less exposed to foreign shocks, but they are also less efficient and less able to cushion shocks through trade. Quantitatively, the latter effect tends to dominate: re-localising GVCs would make the economy in most countries both less efficient and less stable. The economic case for policy-induced reshoring of GVCs is therefore weak. There is nevertheless scope for governments to join efforts with businesses to improve risk preparedness.