Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program
Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program
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DOI：
10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746
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发表时间：
2010-06-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hainmueller, Jens
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abadie, Alberto;Diamond, Alexis;Hainmueller, Jens
基于Abadie和Gardeazabal（2003）的一个想法，本文研究了综合控制方法在比较案例研究中的应用。我们讨论了这些方法的优点，并将其应用于研究99号提案的影响，这是加州在1988年实施的一项大规模烟草控制计划。我们证明了这一点。在99号提案之后，相对于可比较的综合控制区，加州的烟草消费量显著下降。我们估计，到2000年，加州的年人均卷烟销售量比没有99号提案的情况下低26包。使用本文提出的新的推理方法，我们证明了我们的估计的意义。鉴于社会科学领域的许多政策干预和活动是在总体上进行的（国家、区域、国家和区域），城市等）并影响少数聚合单位，综合控制方法的潜在适用性比较案例研究是非常大的，特别是在传统的回归方法是不合适的情况下。
Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that. following Proposition 99, tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Using new inferential methods proposed in this article, we demonstrate the significance of our estimates. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions. cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate.