Simulation and projection of changes in rainy season precipitation over China using the WRF model
Simulation and projection of changes in rainy season precipitation over China using the WRF model
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DOI：
10.1007/s13351-013-0406-2
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发表时间：
2013-08
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shuzhou Wang;Entao Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shuzhou Wang;Entao Yu
天气研究与预报（WRF）模式用于区域气候模式配置，模拟中国过去1981-2000年雨季（5-9月）降水气候，并研究中国降水相对于1981-2000年参考期的未来（2041-2060年和2081-2100年）潜在变化。 WRF 的初始条件来自耦合大气环流模型，即 MIROC（气候跨学科研究模型）的高分辨率版本。 WRF比MIROC更好地再现了1981-2000年雨季降水的观测分布及其年际变化。 MIROC预计，到21世纪中叶，中国大部分地区的雨季降水量将增加，而台湾部分地区和西藏中部的雨季降水量将减少25毫米以上。 WRF预计，2041-2060年，青藏高原南部、西南地区、东北地区西北部地区降水量将减少，青藏高原东南缘和长江下游地区降水量将增加100毫米以上。 MIROC 预计，到 21 世纪末，中国大部分地区的降雨量将进一步增加，尽管台湾、广西、贵州和西藏中部部分地区的模拟降雨量减少了 25 毫米以上。 WRF预计到21世纪末，青藏高原东南缘和长江下游地区降雨量将增加100毫米以上，西南地区和青藏高原南部地区降雨量将减少。
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981–2000, and to investigate potential future (2041–2060 and 2081–2100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981–2000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981–2000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041–2060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century.